For want of a better comment: this is pretty cool! *thumbs up*
The media spot-light is on Melbourne at the moment, however Canberra could be a concern. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a significant outbreak of COVID-19 in the ACT later this month, as the climatic conditions in Canberra over recent days are comparable to the conditions seen in other regions of the world prior to fast-spreading coronavirus outbreaks.
I live and work in Melbourne's Western Suburbs. In the past 6-8 weeks social distancing, especially amongst the young has been non existent. Coffee shops, take-away stores and shopping centres have been near full. In March and April you saw many people wearing masks whilst shopping, two weeks ago they were non-existent. I went shopping at Coles today and I saw about six people wearing masks out of maybe 40 customers in the store. A friend of mine who sometimes shops in Broadmeadows (in the North West) tells me it is worse there. He has seen many people walking together, hugging, shaking hands, kissing etc, with little social distancing. In other words many people in the areas hit by the Covid-19 virus were going about life as normal. Remember in Melbourne we have short days and cold weather in winter. There is no doubt many Melbournians have relaxed and felt the virus threat is overblown. Melbourne, as Australia's biggest city (yes bigger than Sydney is you exclude the Central Coast), with its cold winters was always going to be the most likely place for a flare-up of the virus,
Thanks for all of your work through the last six months. It's been invaluable to me. My estimate is that we (Victoria and therefore Australia) will come out of this second lockdown a lot wiser and a little warmer so I'm optimistic that we'll move forward both economically and medically after this.
Chris, Given the vast economic cost of mistakes in getting overseas Australians back home safely, is there an argument to route the thousands of passengers returning to Australia via Sydney and Melbourne through another more remote airport. The cost of getting quarantine wrong in Alice Springs, for example, would be far less than getting it wrong in Melbourne. Interested to hear your view.
michael that is a great idea
Why Alice Springs? Howards Springs near Darwin and Christmas Island were already used for that purpose.
HI Chris, this is terrific analysis. Given today's case count of ~430 it appears we're following your forecast case trajectory. In your model what is the daily case count at the peak? Also, do you have a range of dates for when the case count returns to close to nil?