General Insurance Notes: Hasta la vista El Nino

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has recently turned positive and signals the end of El Niño. However, the Bureau of Meteorology’s current outlook is still for a neutral-to-weak La Niña and the most recent survey of international climate models suggests any La Niña in late spring or summer would be potentially short-lived and well below the strength of the significant 2010-12 event. This would be good for general insurers as we head into the tropical cyclone season where incidents also appear lower in a neutral-to-weak La Niña phase.