Gold, AI and the risks investors can’t ignore heading into 2026

Markets are being pulled in different directions. Gold is back in favour. AI is attracting capital at a scale few have seen before. Inflation refuses to fully disappear. And investors are trying to work out whether the next year looks more like opportunity or risk.

These were the themes we wanted to tackle for episode 50 of Success and More Interesting Stuff. Not in isolation, but together. Because how you think about stores of wealth affects how you view AI. How you view policy risk shapes how you think about markets in 2026. None of these questions sit on their own anymore.

To unpack it all, we brought together three investors who see the world from very different angles. Chris Judd, founder of Cerutty Macro Fund, whose lens is global liquidity, currencies and commodities. Jun Bei Liu, portfolio manager at Ten Cap, with a bottom-up focus on equities and capital allocation. And Dr Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP, who brings four decades of market cycles, policy mistakes and recoveries to the table.

It felt like the right way to mark a milestone. When Success and More Interesting Stuff began almost five years ago, it was a COVID summer experiment. A few spare hours, an interesting guest, and no real sense of where it might lead. Since then, the show has grown into a monthly fixture, approaching a quarter of a million downloads featuring the stories of some of Australia's top investors and business leaders.

For this special episode, we set aside the usual one-on-one format and opened the conversation up. Four topics. Three perspectives. And a chance to step back and take stock of where investors are landing now, and what lies ahead.

Watch the video, listen to the podcast or read a summary below. 

Stores of wealth are shifting

The conversation began where many portfolios have quietly shifted in recent years: gold, silver and digital assets.

Chris Judd traced the renewed bid for precious metals back to a clear inflection point. In 2022, when Russia’s foreign exchange reserves were frozen following the invasion of Ukraine, the assumption that US Treasuries were a politically neutral store of value was shaken.

Since then, central banks have been consistent buyers of gold. That demand reflects a reassessment of where surplus wealth is parked when confidence in government bonds is less certain. Judd argued that even after a strong run, gold still looks early in the cycle when viewed against history.

Silver, he said, may have even more upside. Unlike gold, silver sits at the intersection of monetary hedging and industrial demand. Electronics, solar, medical equipment and electrification are all driving consumption, and prices remain well below historical highs despite a strong year.

“Central banks have been consistent buyers of gold since 2022, and that tells you something important about how reserve assets are being reassessed.” - Chris Judd, Cerutty Macro Fund

Jun Bei Liu framed gold’s role more simply. It hedges geopolitical risk, diversifies portfolios and protects against currency debasement. That makes it a structural allocation rather than a tactical one.

In practice, that exposure comes through equities. Larger producers provide stability, while smaller names offer leverage to spot prices and production growth. A key point was that many gold equities still lag the metal itself, particularly those with longer-dated contracts. That gap has created valuation support even after the rally.

Shane Oliver added historical perspective. Compared with the tech bubble or the excesses around the GFC, gold’s move has been relatively measured. At the same time, public debt levels across the US, Europe and Japan remain elevated, inflation risks haven’t disappeared, and geopolitical uncertainty has intensified. Together, those forces continue to underpin demand for hedging assets.

Digital assets drew a more cautious response. Judd separated Bitcoin from the broader crypto universe, describing most tokens as speculative technology plays. Bitcoin, while different, has followed a consistent four-year cycle: three strong years followed by one weak year. If that pattern holds, 2026 would fall into the weaker phase.

Oliver noted that as Bitcoin becomes more institutional, its return profile is changing. Each cycle has delivered smaller multiples than the last. Maturity brings broader acceptance, but also more modest upside.

AI matters, but returns will be uneven

From hard assets, the conversation moved to artificial intelligence and the surge in capital spending that has followed.

AI is now embedded in business decision-making. Companies are investing to lift productivity, defend market share or avoid being left behind. The question for investors is not whether AI matters, but where returns will actually accrue.

Jun Bei Liu focused on the risks embedded in AI infrastructure spending. Data centres require enormous upfront capital, and many projects are being built without long-dated contracts. That makes valuation difficult, particularly given the pace of technological change.

If future systems require less physical infrastructure, or demand shifts, today’s assets could age quickly. Without contracted cash flows, the long-term economics become uncertain.

Chris Judd compared the AI build-out to early railroads. The infrastructure transformed economies, but many of the companies that built it struggled to generate durable returns. Capital intensity, depreciation and competition mattered then, and they matter now.

Instead, Judd pointed to second-order beneficiaries. Power generation and electricity grids are becoming critical constraints. AI training and deployment are energy-hungry, and the US grid is already under strain.

China, he noted, produces roughly twice as much electricity as the US. That imbalance has strategic implications, which is why grid upgrades and power infrastructure could become central investment themes.

“AI will create enormous economic value, but we’re not convinced that value automatically sits with the companies building the infrastructure.” - Chris Judd, Cerutty Macro Fund

Shane Oliver took a broader view. AI-related capital expenditure has lifted, but remains well below late-1990s extremes as a share of GDP. Oversupply risks exist, but they have not yet reached problematic levels.

Where Oliver sees opportunity is further downstream. Companies that adopt AI effectively and translate it into productivity gains are more likely to see sustainable earnings growth. Unlike the internet era, AI lacks strong network effects and is harder to monetise directly.

“The real gains are likely to flow to the adopters rather than the enablers.” - Dr Shane Oliver, AMP

What could derail markets?

After several years of solid equity returns, the discussion turned to risk.

Inflation remains central. If price pressures re-accelerate, interest rates stay higher for longer, tightening financial conditions. That risk is particularly relevant in Australia, where inflation has been slower to fall.

In the US, tariffs and policy changes could also push prices higher. If inflation surprises on the upside just as markets expect rate cuts, sentiment could turn quickly.

Judd focused on liquidity rather than recession risk. With US elections approaching, there is strong political incentive to support asset prices. Equity markets play a major role in confidence, tax receipts and household wealth.

That doesn’t rule out market corrections, but history suggests stress periods are increasingly met with rapid policy responses.

Oliver highlighted the difficulty of timing debt-related crises. High public debt raises vulnerability, but doesn’t provide clear timing signals. The greater risk is inflation expectations becoming unanchored, forcing central banks into a more aggressive stance than markets expect.

Looking ahead to 2026

In Australia, earnings growth is expected to be around 8–10%, supported by dividends and relatively reasonable valuations. Flat interest rates are not ideal, but they are manageable.

Jun Bei Liu expects opportunities across sectors, though rate-sensitive areas may face headwinds. Financial deregulation and increased merger activity in the US could support sentiment and valuations.

“Earnings growth and dividends still matter, and on that front the outlook remains reasonably constructive.” - Jun Bei Liu, Ten Cap

Chris Judd was more cautious on Australian small caps, which rely heavily on retail liquidity and lower rates. Larger companies and commodity exposures look better positioned, particularly as countries reassess how they store surplus wealth.

Shane Oliver expects the RBA to remain on hold for much of the year, with inflation gradually easing. That backdrop supports equities, but volatility is likely.

High single-digit returns, rather than smooth double-digit gains, remain the more realistic base case.

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