Goldman Sachs Economist Kris Dawsey sees three reasons to be bullish on the US in the 2nd Quarter

1) Dawsey says US consumers will bounce back: "While some of this output may be lost for good, a simple bounce-back to the prior level of spending would boost the growth rate in Q2 by roughly the same amount as the Q1 drag. In addition, some of the activity may just be shifted into Q2, in particular with regard to residential investment, resulting in an even bigger potential boost. 2) Energy companies will also bounce back: "...the adjustment in oil-industry cap-ex has been more front-loaded than we expected, meaning that less adjustment will probably be needed in the remaining quarters of the year." 3) Gas savings will fuel spending: "...the consumer spending response to lower gasoline prices has been slower in coming than we would have anticipated. (Personal saving has increased by $123bn (annualized) since September, roughly the same magnitude as the $111bn decline in nominal spending on gasoline over this time). Assuming at least some of the boost anticipated for Q1 shows up in Q2, it raises some upside risk to our standing 3% forecast." Read more: (VIEW LINK)

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