A year ago I sat here thinking that economic fundamentals mattered most when being a global macro investor. The "fundamentals" were driving my calls and it was working. It is exactly one year since my bearish, "fundamental" view of Commodities, Stocks and China lead the portfolio to enjoy the gains of being short while the markets were tumbling out of their chuáng. A year on and for the last seven months, our view of the fundamentals seem to not sync with the moves in the markets. Which cost us in the P&L statement, the sleepless nights, and the coffee's spilt on Bloomberg keyboards in trying to make sense of the puzzle that is the equity, bond, currency and commodity markets. Economic data is always up for scrutiny and debate, but the old "good data is good for markets and bad data is good for keeping interest rates lower which is good for markets" tongue twister continues to prevail. Read more here... (VIEW LINK)
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