The portfolio closed Q1 up 10% in USD and 15% in EUR, mainly thanks to a weakening Euro, Oil and Gold price along with a rising of the Nikkei in Japan. After a fantastic long weekend break and a chance to enjoy the start of the northern spring, we have entered Q2 with some early indications in our economic data leading indicators that global growth is starting to bottom out and pointing to improvement for later in the year. In the chart below, if the forming trend continues and there is a crossing of our leading indicator (blue line) above our global growth forecast (grey line) in the days and weeks to come and we will flip our global growth view to bullish - but we will stay patient and on hold until it does. (VIEW LINK)


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James Marlay

Dan you refer regularly to your growth indicators in your blogs. Are you able to give some insight into what goes into these indicators and why you have chosen the respective data points? Cheers, James