he quants are flying in, most of them portraying a bearish picture given the first three days of trade

Pepperstone
he quants are flying in, most of them portraying a bearish picture given the first three days of trade. Firstly the S&P never closed in negative territory in 2012 and 2103, while in 2014 the opposite is true and we haven't seen a positive close. It's also worth highlighting that since 1927 the index has recorded positive years 66% of the time, however if the first five days are positive this performance improves to 77%. If the first five days are negative (which looks like materialising) then historically the probability of the full year falling increases from over 30% to 52%. Of course this has no bearing on short-term direction, but it's worth pointing out that many do look at January as a barometer of how the year may pan out.
Welcome to Livewire, Australia’s most trusted source of investment insights and analysis.
To continue reading this wire and get unlimited access to Livewire, join for free now and become a more informed and confident investor.

Highly accomplished financial markets professional, with experience at a number of top-tier global institutions on both the buy and sell-side. A natural communicator with a strong ability to analyse macro-economic trends, capital flows and market...
Expertise

Highly accomplished financial markets professional, with experience at a number of top-tier global institutions on both the buy and sell-side. A natural communicator with a strong ability to analyse macro-economic trends, capital flows and market...