he quants are flying in, most of them portraying a bearish picture given the first three days of trade

Chris Weston

Pepperstone

he quants are flying in, most of them portraying a bearish picture given the first three days of trade. Firstly the S&P never closed in negative territory in 2012 and 2103, while in 2014 the opposite is true and we haven't seen a positive close. It's also worth highlighting that since 1927 the index has recorded positive years 66% of the time, however if the first five days are positive this performance improves to 77%. If the first five days are negative (which looks like materialising) then historically the probability of the full year falling increases from over 30% to 52%. Of course this has no bearing on short-term direction, but it's worth pointing out that many do look at January as a barometer of how the year may pan out.


Chris Weston
Head of Research
Pepperstone

Highly accomplished financial markets professional, with experience at a number of top-tier global institutions on both the buy and sell-side. A natural communicator with a strong ability to analyse macro-economic trends, capital flows and market...

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