Healthscope: Near-term uncertain, but drivers intact

Increased 1Q variability in Hospital volumes/case mix has seen HSO warn of soft divisional revenue growth and flat divisional growth if the trend continues through FY17. Negative publicity around affordability and consumer confidence were cited as the main cause of weakness, with October looking likely to improve and no fundamental change in industry dynamics. While noting some ambiguity, along with the need for further case-mix optimisation, makes the near-term outlook uncertain and will likely take time for shares to recover, we continue to view core industry drivers as intact, brownfields on track, capital structure secure and contract pricing stable.