How the 10 most-tipped ETFs have performed in 2025 so far

Back in December 2024, we asked Livewire and Market Index readers to share their picks for the top ETFs on the ASX for 2025.

And, as I noted when I originally revealed the list, it was a selection dominated by the theme of a value rotation. Just three of the funds tipped were pure growth investments (FANG, HACK and NDQ), while the rest were either largely value or used specific factors like income.

So, how have they done this year?

If we assume an equal amount invested in each ETF, the top-tipped ETFs for 2025 from Livewire readers have delivered a 7.21% total return on average - a respectable outcome in just eight months. That said, it has lagged the performance of a simple ASX 200 or MSCI World ex-Australia Index. Of course, the year isn’t over yet.

In this update, I’ll share the best-to-worst performers so far and unpack the key themes from readers' selection of funds.

Please note: We are sharing information from the Livewire and Market Index readerships by publishing this list. We hope it inspires ideas for your investment research. This information is not, nor is it intended to be, a set of recommendations. Please do your own research and seek advice from a professional. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future return.

Most-tipped ETFs in 2025

Key takeaways

To put 2025 into perspective, here’s how the hive mind’s top-tipped ETFs have stacked up over the past three years:

The moment fundies said would happen is finally happening

We’ve featured countless wires about fund managers expecting a shift from growth to value stocks. It’s been some time in the making, but in 2025, it happened in earnest - and it was triggered by the man in the White House himself.

With President Donald Trump injecting fresh uncertainty into the global economy, many of the fundies we’ve spoken to this year argue that Australia is increasingly being viewed as a safe place for global capital. 

Our market is cheaper than the US, our ways of governing are predictable, and there’s the hard-to-beat quality of income from our banks, miners and Telstra.

It’s no surprise, then, that VAS and VHY have been the stars so far in 2025.

That’s not to say growth has been a bust. FANG, HACK, and IOO have each delivered high single-digit to ~10% total returns year-to-date. And to be sure, their returns have been dampened by the rising AUD/USD this year.

Nonetheless, the heavy lifting in 2025 has come from value and income, with Australia again proving its role as a safe haven for international capital in times of turmoil.

Simplicity is outshining smart beta

Given tariff noise, policy uncertainty, and geopolitics, you might expect smart beta ETFs - products that use specific strategies and screens to find stocks that can outperform - like quality and moat tilts to shine.

Instead, QUAL and MOAT have lagged on a total-return basis this year. VanEck’s own commentary has flagged that QUAL’s overweight in healthcare and consumer staples has been a drag, with the controversial UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) a notable headwind. The stock plunged 43% in Q2 alone, weighing on the fund’s performance.

But could the weakness be an opportunity? In classic fashion, Warren Buffett invoked his famous “be greedy when others are fearful” mantra, scooping up roughly US$1.6 billion worth of UnitedHealth shares this month, a clear signal he sees long-term value in the company.

MOAT, meanwhile, has also been weighed down by its roughly 40% footprint in healthcare and consumer staples. That tilt has been a key reason for underperformance so far. 

Why your instincts may still prove right

Despite this short-term underperformance, I’m backing you - our readers - to be on the right side of history. By tipping so many diversified ETFs, you were effectively counting on the value rotation to intensify. That’s exactly what’s happening now, and Australia has been a big beneficiary.

What’s more, as strategist Callie Cox of Ritholtz Wealth Management recently highlighted, S&P 493 earnings are set to accelerate (that’s the S&P 500 minus the Magnificent Seven), as shown in the chart below.

If that plays out, we could see another leg higher in this market rally led by non-tech stocks. That would be a huge tailwind for ETFs with significant value exposure, including IVV, QUAL, MOAT, IOO and VGS.

Related content

For more information about each of these funds and their methodology, check out the introductory wire I published on the most-tipped ETFs of 2025.

Funds

Your 10 most-tipped ETFs for 2025

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