If gold hits $5,000 in 2026, do Northern Star and Ramelius illustrate an opportunity?

Looking toward 2026, gold prices look set to stay high.

China continues buying, interest rates and the US dollar continue falling, and global investors are exiting US treasuries.

All things being equal, this should support gold miners, which have become one of the most unloved pockets of the mining industry this decade (second perhaps only to coal).

If gold prices rise materially next year - as some banks forecast - then it is likely that the best opportunities will be undervalued miners that can grow production while expanding margins.

Two ASX gold miners illustrate the opportunity well: Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST), which is valued cheaply despite sector-leading growth. And Ramelius Resources (ASX: RMS), a darling among Australian brokers.

Northern Star (NST) - in the shadow of Newmont and Evolution

Among the majors, investors largely focused on Newmont (ASX: NEM) and Evolution (ASX: EVN) through 2024–25.

Northern Star’s share price has been marked down by worries about its Kalgoorlie “Super Pit” (one of Australia’s largest mines) expansion given its recent wall collapse and concerns about the significant construction spending following its acquisition of the Hemi mine from De Grey (completed May 2025).

The Hemi acquisition improves NST’s resource base and pipeline. But integrating Hemi and realising value will take ages and cost lots of money.

Nevertheless, it is perfectly conceivable that catch up trades will kick in 2026 for NST for three reasons.

First, it is about to see a cash uplift. Currently, NST has “hedged” (pre-sold, in other words) about 41% of its production for early 2026 at fixed prices. This limits NST’s profits now, but these contracts gradually start expiring in 2026. (NST's management has also said it will abandon its forward hedging policy.) This means they will soon start selling gold at the current, much higher, market prices, giving them a double boost of more gold sold at better prices.

Second, the expansion of the famous Super Pit is about lowering costs as much as it is about boosting production – a fact lost on the market in my view. The new processing plant is designed to cut processing costs by roughly A$7 per tonne according to Goldman Sachs. This has the potential to transform the mine from an expensive legacy asset into a much more meaningful profit contributor.

Third, it is financially safe. With $600m in net cash and around $3bn in available liquidity, NST can easily afford these upgrades while still paying shareholders a modest (fully franked) dividend.

Ramelius Resources (RMS) - the market sees only construction costs?

Ramelius Resources has become a favourite with brokers because it is rare to find a mid-sized miner growing this fast without needing the capital market.

RMS success comes from a scalable “hub-and-spoke” strategy.

Instead of building an expensive processing factory at every single mine, RMS uses one central factory (the hub) and truck in ore from high-grade mines nearby (the spokes).

RMS is already doing this successfully by trucking ore from its Penny and Cue mines to its Mt Magnet processing centre. It recently acquired Spartan Resources which gave it the Dalgaranga project. Mt Magnet is forecast to produce up to 380,000 ounces per year by 2030. This allows it to run two efficient networks at once.

RMS can pay for all this growth using its own savings, meaning they don't need to issue new shares and debt.

Currently, the market is hitting RMS with a steep discount to its gold assets. Its promising exploration drilling at places like Eridanus and Galaxy is being ignored.

The discounts are reflected in the modelling from JP Morgan (above two graphs), which shows RMS trades on the lowest implied gold price of any Australian gold miner and the biggest discount to net present value.

What's causing the discount? Probably the fact RMS must build a lot over the next 2-3 years in order to get its hubs and spokes system firing. And while high construction costs over the next 2-3 years are a certainty for RMS, a higher gold price in 2028 is not. 

Conclusion: know the risks

Gold mining stocks have lost popularity with generalist investors. 

Picking mining stocks is risky at the best of times; even professional fund managers with decades of experience struggle to do it well. Adding to this is the fact that, for gold, investors increasingly favour bullion ETFs - and for obvious reason. Bullion ETFs have performed better, offer more diversification and lack counterparty risks.

But for those wanting to express a view on the rising gold price in 2026, gold miners offer greater torque and potentially income.

Emphasis: This article is intended as general information only and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything.  

Disclosure: Neither the author, nor ETF Shares, nor any of its affiliated parties, holds any positions in Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST) or Ramelius Resources (ASX: RMS) at the time of publication. Nor do they have any intentions to enter into positions into them at the time of publication. 

About ETF Shares

ETF Shares is a low-cost index ETF issuer, based out of Macquarie University. We specialise in US-focussed ETFs, such as the ETFS Magnificent 7+ ETF (ASX: HUGE) and ETFS US Quality ETF (ASX: BEST)