Is the Party over for Telstra

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Is the Party over for Telstra? TLS has provided shareholders with a 90% return plus dividends since the recent low in March 2011. However, over the past year the stock has performed more or less in line with the market. Roger Montgomery argues that after a period of strong gains where a stock has moved from being intrinsically cheap to being fair value or expensive, the balance of probability moves against investors. TLS is trading at the high end of the $3 - $5 range in which it has been bound for the past decade. During this period Telstra has delivered flat EPS of around $.30/share. Unless the future looks very different to the past TLS is unlikely to deliver material growth in intrinsic value moving forward. So is it reasonable to expect Telstra's share price to revert back to the mean or can the Company change its' spots? (VIEW LINK)


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