Is the sun setting on the international travel boom?

Casey Mclean, Portfolio Manager at Fidelity International has some bad news for those of you who have been investing in travel related stocks

"After a period of intense revenge travel, it is clear that the leading indicators are rolling over."

Presenting his shocking prediction during the final session at Livewire Live 2023, he tracks through a range of data from the US, who McLean notes are about 6 months' ahead of Australia on the opening up, post Covid, he concludes that travel is showing. 

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Fidelity Australian Opportunities Fund

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He also cautions against looking to Chinese travellers as the panacea for declines in other destinations. The Chinese economy is looking less robust and Chinese people are increasingly seeking out domestic travel - staycations are becoming a trend. He also notes that younger Chinese tourists have different travel preferences to their parents and are not so interested in group travel.

And turning his attention to Australia, he notes that, notwithstanding the increased number of Australians taking out personal loans for travel, the post-Covid revenge travel era is coming to an end. When it does, it will be airline stocks that bear the brunt. 

You can watch him present this thesis in the video below.

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