Jeremy Grantham on peak oil demand
Jeremy Grantham on peak oil demand. With slower economic growth, more fuel-efficient vehicles, hybrids, electric cars, natural gas vehicles, and possibly new technologies using fuel cells and methanol, it is certain that oil demand from developed countries will decline. Countries like China will take more dramatic and faster steps to reduce demand than we have ever thought about. Already they have 200 million electric vehicles, mostly motorbikes, as many as the rest of the world squared. Oil demand at current prices or higher is likely to peak in 10 years. At much lower prices we will lose most of our high-cost production: deep offshore, fracking, and tar sands. Oil prices will be higher than now in 10 years, but after that, who knows? The idea of peak oil demand as opposed to peak oil supply has gone from being a joke to an idea worth beginning to think about.