Kidman: The bull market is entering its final phase

Interview recorded on 16 June 2026

In September 2024, Matthew Kidman delivered a presentation on the history of structural bull and bear markets. His message was decidedly upbeat: the structural bull market that began in 2009 had further to run. 

Earlier this week, I sat down with Matthew to get an update on his views and to hear how he is positioning Centennial’s Level 18 Fund. Kidman stands by his thesis that while we are in the late stages of this bull market, the run could easily extend for another 12 to 18 months.

“It's going to be volatile and you're going to get some strange behaviour and we're starting to get it.”

Bull markets should be great for investors, yet the Australian market, at least at the index level, hasn’t come to the party, with the S&P/ASX 200 index up just 4.3% over the past 12 months.

But make no mistake, the market is approaching fever pitch and Kidman says the signs are sitting in plain sight. At a high level, we’re seeing big moves across global markets. The 40% run for the NASDAQ over the past 12 months looks pedestrian when compared to the 80% gain on the Nikkei.

It’s not all about price action. Investor sentiment and the belief that something is different this time are also signs of exuberance.

“We saw it in the late 90s with the internet. Guess what? It was unusual, but the market takes it from an idea that's got a lot of truth to it and then it just takes it to another level where it gets far too excited, way too early and allocates too much capital. And I think we're just about hitting that phase now.”

Monster IPOs and capital raisings are a few of the hallmarks that have caught Kidman’s attention. Loss-making SpaceX, he says, has played the game perfectly.

“So US$1.7 trillion market value, US$75 billion of money raised and index inclusion. Bang, the thing's going up.”

Kidman suggests there are some similarities in the structure of the recent SpaceX IPO and the listing of Guzman y Gomez (ASX:GYG) on the ASX in 2024. GYG almost doubled in the six months post-listing; however, shares are currently sitting 13% below the IPO offer price.

So what comes next? 

We know there are more big IPOs in the pipeline with OpenAI and Anthropic lining up to list. Kidman expects to see increasing levels of retail investor participation as fear of missing out (FOMO) spreads.

“And guess what they do? They go and open a margin leverage account because the last two floats have done really well. I can't miss out. I've only got to put 50 cents of the dollar in. I can borrow the rest. All that's going to start happening now.”

Where Centennial Asset Management is investing today

Benign index-level performance for the ASX 200 doesn’t tell the full story. Beneath the surface, pockets of the market are running hot and Kidman believes this performance can continue.

He specifically calls out industries and companies exposed to the massive capital investment cycle being driven by AI hyperscalers (data centres), electrification, as well as defence spending.

Centennial has maintained exposure to these themes through companies including SKS Technologies Group (ASX:SKS), SRG Global (ASX:SRG), and Codan (ASX:CDA).

All three stocks trade at premium valuations; however, Kidman says it is all about earnings momentum and expectations for now.

“One of the things you learn over time is it’s not so much about the valuation, it's about the trajectory of the company.”

“It’s time to be a bit careful but the theme is still going.”

More recent additions include Adelaide-based Korvest (ASX:KOV) and crane operator Boom Logistics (ASX:BOL), which are two small caps Kidman believes have attractive upside potential.

While stocks exposed to the capex cycle have been flying, the RBA's interest rate pivot in late 2025 has weighed heavily on sectors such as discretionary retail, property, and non-bank financials.

Kidman says this will prove to be fertile hunting ground once the hiking cycle is finished. With some economists calling time on further RBA hikes, there are signs that investors are sniffing around for value.

“If I'm the Reserve Bank Governor, I'm remembered for how I dealt with inflation … I suspect there might be, if the inflation numbers don't start to head in the right direction fairly quickly, another rate rise.”

Staying liquid and nimble

A key takeaway from my discussion with Kidman in October 2025 is that the final stages of bull markets can be very rewarding for investors. In fact, he reckons the two best times to make money are in the lead-up to a crash and in the immediate aftermath.

The problem is that in between those two periods there’s a bear market, and nobody will tell you exactly when it will kick off. Kidman is adamant that being nimble and liquid is critical in this phase of the market cycle.

“We’re entering a phase of the market where liquidity is going to be paramount. As an investor, you do not want to be in illiquid assets under any circumstances.”

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Centennial Asset Management's Level 18 Fund will be closing to applications from new investors at the end of August 2026. For more information click here.