Lighting the Olympic flame in Brisvegas 2032

The Olympics are, by any measure, the most ambitious sporting event on the planet. They are also one of the most expensive. According to research by Oxford University in the decades since the modern Games took on their current form, not a single host city has come in on/under budget. Not one.[1] Add to this the perhaps lesser-known fact that only one modern Olympics has generated a profit (Los Angeles, 1984). Coming back onto home soil, the question for Brisbane 2032, and perhaps also for investors in the ~6 years ahead, is not whether there will be cost overruns, but what the spending program will ultimately look like, and which businesses are best positioned to benefit from it.

The Olympic Price Tag: A Brief History

The data tells a consistent story: the final cost has always exceeded the original budget. In some cases, the overruns have been breathtaking — Rio de Janeiro 2016 came in at more than three and a half times its original budget at a final cost of USD$23.6 billion. Athens 2004, often cited as the cautionary tale of Olympics excess, finished at USD$3.1 billion above its originally tendered figure. Even London 2012, generally considered a well-managed event with strong legacy outcomes, came in 76% above its bid budget at USD$16.8 billion.

The table below summarises what has occurred since 1988.

A useful insight is buried in the data. When you strip out outliers like Sochi and Rio de Janeiro (case studies in greenfield development and infrastructure unpreparedness, respectively), the cost of hosting a Summer Olympics in a developed city with existing infrastructure has typically landed in the USD$8–17 billion range. Paris 2024 came in at approximately USD$9.7 billion with an estimated 15% overrun — a relatively disciplined outcome given that ~95% of venues already existed.

What Is Being Committed in Brisvegas?

On paper, Brisbane sits in a good position. It has existing venues, a healthy economy underpinned by strong relative population growth, and the full weight of federal and state government funding commitments behind it. Despite this, the original operating budget set at the time of the 2021 successful bid was AUD$4.9 billion.

“We had the bid budget, and that bears no resemblance to reality, especially right now.” – Andrew Liveris, President, Brisbane 2032 Games Committee (Feb-26)

That number has already been revised substantially upwards as of February 2026, following the decision to build new venues (among other factors). The key numbers announced to date include:

Whilst 17 venues will either be constructed or upgraded, the centrepiece of the new venue construction is a 63,000-seat stadium in Victoria Park — a project that alone represents a major long-duration construction program. Beyond the headline venue figure, the AUD$12.4 billion transport commitment is where the real economic multiplier effect is likely to be felt. Transport and infrastructure typically represent approximately 50% of total Olympic spending across recent Summer Games, with venues and athlete villages accounting for around 25%. Brisbane's current committed transport spend alone already exceeds the entire budget of some prior Games.

Furthermore, the Queensland state construction budget is itself projected to rise materially — from AUD$53 billion in FY24-25 to AUD$75 billion in FY27-28, according to Construction Skills Queensland.[2] This is a 45% increase over two years. For context, many projects are in the site investigation phase, and FY27 is seen as the start of the mobilisation phase for the Brisbane 2032 activity, not the peak. If history is any indication, the construction timeframe for a typical summer Olympics is generally trending upward.

The Activity Hasn’t Kicked Off in Full — But It Will

Sitting here in 2HFY26, the activity hasn't kicked off just yet. Many companies are talking about the benefits that will accrue over the coming years, and markets are starting to frame this as having both short- and medium-term components. For example, the Olympic corridor asset upgrade works are likely to be very substantial work packages, which will start to be awarded soon. These will flow through to providers of civils, building materials & labour providers, to name a few areas.

There is no doubt that certain companies and the market more generally are beginning to discuss the tailwind from Brisbane 2032 at a general level, but the specific, project-by-project benefits have not yet fully filtered through to company revenue lines. Our assessment is that the Brisbane effect has not been priced into company valuations for medium-term growth, as it remains just over the horizon.

The Elephant in the Room – Labour Shortages

“The labour shortage issue in Australia is definitely one that we worry about. But look, I see in general the migration of labour north as a very positive thing.” – Andrew Liveris, President, Brisbane 2032 Games Committee

Labour availability will be one of, if not the, major constraints during the construction period for the Brisbane 2032 Olympics. Industry body Construction Skills Queensland, in its Horizons 2032 Report, has warned that Queensland’s construction worker shortfall could peak at ~35,000 workers ahead of the 2032 Games.

These predicted labour shortages have widespread ramifications, not just for Brisbane 2032 being delivered on time and on (well, close to) budget, but by acting as a labour pool drain for competing demands across housing, mining, and civil infrastructure. Skills from southern states are already beginning to migrate north.

Population growth compounds the effect further. Queensland is on track to surpass 6 million residents by 2032, which means the Olympic spending is layered on top of an already-strong organic demand profile for construction activity in Southeast Queensland. The region was already one of the strongest construction markets in the country. It is likely to get considerably stronger before it gets weaker.

Company in Focus: Big River Industries (ASX: BRI)

Against this backdrop, the question for investors is where and how to access this exposure. Major QLD cement company Wagners Holding Co Ltd (ASX: WGN) is an obvious one and, given its area of operations, will be on the front end of the construction works. Over the past 12 months, WGN’s share price has more than doubled. At the emerging company end of the market, we believe Big River Industries Ltd (ASX: BRI) represents a compelling opportunity.

BRI is a building materials distributor with a national footprint and a particularly strong presence in Southeast Queensland. According to the 1H FY26 results presentation, ~33% of the company's revenue is generated in Queensland. As depicted in the company image below, BRI’s sites in QLD are heavily concentrated in Southeast Queensland. Adding to this, ~75% of the state population is located in Southeast Queensland, so based on these three pieces of information, we estimate the region of Southeast Queensland may represent ~25%+ of total BRI group revenues – a significant exposure to a region which is going to experience significant construction activity over the coming years.

The business operates across two key divisions — building and construction materials (trade-focused, not consumer-focused) and timber panels — and serves thousands of customers nationwide. What makes BRI particularly relevant to the Brisbane 2032 theme is its product mix. BRI is a major provider of formwork, which is a critical input for concrete pouring and, therefore, for the construction of major infrastructure and building projects. It also supplies decorative panels and timber products, a lot of which will be used in the latter stages of the buildout.

There is a growing trend towards Olympic builds achieving sustainability goals, with both Paris 2024 and Milan-Cortina 2026 having an extensive focus on timber. The former mandated timber for all buildings under 8 storeys in the Olympic village, whilst the latter used certified timber, most notably from sustainably managed Italian forests. Closer to home, (and putting aside formply) timber panels are expected to be a key part of the Brisbane Olympics athletes’ village and the Moreton Bay Indoor Sports Centre, amongst other venues. The International Olympic Committee itself states in its sustainability strategy: “Driven by our vision to build a better world through sport, we believe it is our responsibility to contribute to global sustainability efforts”. According to Wood Solutions Australia, timber is the only major building material that tackles climate change, given it is both a naturally renewable and abundant resource, with wood able to store carbon even after the building process.

As we have previously written about at NAOS, BRI has a history spanning more than 100 years, which has allowed it to build both brand recognition with construction and building firms across the country and a network of distribution centres with genuine geographic reach. From current revenue levels of approximately AUD$420 million, we believe the longer-term opportunity — underpinned by the tailwinds of infrastructure spending, Olympic construction, national housing supply requirements, and SEQ population growth — could enable BRI to become a ~AUD$1 billion revenue business. Importantly, this growth opportunity is available to BRI while it remains profitable, cash generative, and operates a capital-light business model.

In a sector that has seen more than AUD$13 billion of building materials businesses taken private in recent history (ASX: ABC, ASX: BLD, ASX: CSR, ASX: AVJ) at what was arguably close to cyclical lows, BRI stands as one of the few remaining pure-play listed building materials companies at the emerging end of the ASX.

An Olympic Hangover?

Perhaps the most significant benefit of hosting the Olympics is the ability for a city to literally put itself on show for the world. Billions of people tune in to the media coverage, so the exposure is unparalleled and effectively turns the entire event into a global advertisement for tourism. Despite this, there have been both success stories and stories of the opposite nature, in terms of what we would describe as an Olympic-sized hangover (major cost blowouts and substantial debt balances that negatively impact a city and its residents for years to come, along with short-term Olympic overinvestment that is unsustainable in the long term). The Barcelona 1992 Summer Olympics is seen as an example of the former, whilst the Athens 2004 Summer Olympics is seen as an example of the latter.

A 2021 report by KPMG for Brisbane 2032 analysed the economic impact over the decade leading up to 2032, as well as the decade post-Olympics. A wide range of topics, including industry/government partnerships, sporting pathways, transportation outcomes, waste management initiatives, and behavioural change, were examined, and the outcomes are shown in the table below.

Whether this 2021 KPMG analysis proves somewhat accurate won’t be known for many years. Given the strong population growth that has and will likely continue to underpin the prosperity of Southeast Queensland, this is at least a good starting point for avoiding an Olympic hangover. In studying recent Olympic games, it appears the trend towards a more sustainable long-term approach to planning and development is driving post-games prosperity; however, the caveat is that the sample size includes major global cities such as Tokyo, Paris, London, and, soon to be, Los Angeles, a category Brisbane is not currently in. Still, the point remains that for companies with strong exposure to the Olympic buildout phase over the coming years, it is hard to see a reversal of the steady-state economic tailwinds that underpin the region.

On Your Marks, Get Set…

Hosting an Olympics doesn’t happen every day of the week… it is somewhere between a once-in-a-generation and a once-in-a-lifetime event. For businesses with genuine exposure to Southeast Queensland construction activity — particularly those supplying materials and products to infrastructure and civil programs — the medium-term backdrop is unusually strong.

Whilst there remain a lot of unknowns, one thing is for certain (ceteris paribus), that on Friday 23rd July 2032, the Olympic flame will light up the new Victoria Park stadium to signal the commencement of the Games of the XXXV Olympiad. This provides a hard date for the construction deadline, which must be met. Project delays can only occur for so long. If we, as a nation, have to spend more preparing for this date, then so be it.