Macquarie's 3 ASX stocks tipped to outperform

Last week’s Macquarie Conference marked the unofficial start of confession season for Australia’s public companies, and Trump’s trade war had given them the perfect cover to announce disappointing results.

However, the reports were mostly positive, and the ASX 200 is now back above 8,300 points after the US and China announced a temporary de-escalation in their ongoing tariff standoff.

It seems like normal service has resumed, and the upshot is revised forecasts for a number of ASX companies.

Of course, given how hard it is to predict the next twist in the global trade war, it's fair to add a big asterisk next to any price targets coming out right now.  

Here are three financial services stocks Macquarie analysts are tipping to outperform if things don't get too crazy.

Pinnacle Investment Management (ASX: PNI) 

• Sector: Financial services
• Market cap: $4.75 billion
• 12-month price target: $25.10 (down from $27.37)

Investment management company Pinnacle had been heavily sold off since February but is now back above $20 a share following the Macquarie Conference.

Affiliate funds under management (FUM) was up to $159.9 billion in Q1 25, up 2.9% from the previous quarter. Quarterly net inflows hit $6.2 billion, with the majority coming from retail and international.

While recent market volatility led Macquarie to downgrade its FY25E EPS by 3% (and by 7-10% for FY26-FY30E), Pinnacle’s diversified affiliates and strategies had helped limit the impact of the market turmoil.

Macquarie also pointed to the fact that 88% of Pinnacle’s strategies and products had outperformed their benchmarks over the five years to March 2025 and that it has up to $300 million of “dry powder” for new commercialisation initiatives.

“PNI has an attractive organic growth outlook and potential to add accretive M&A.”

Steadfast Group (ASX: SDF)

• Sector: Financial services
• Market cap: $6.43 billion
• 12-month price target: $6.80 (unchanged)

Steadfast is Australia's largest general insurance broker network, with operations in Australia, Asia and Europe. 

Macquarie analysts suggest SDF brokers saw a slowdown across all products from March to April (excluding personal motor), in line with industry trends.

Strata was SDF’s worst performer, down 6.9% (and 900 basis points below the Sunrise Platform average, which Macquarie uses as a proxy for market premium rate conditions).

There were no changes to earnings, and Macquarie maintains a 12-month price target of $6.80, based on a blended DCF/relative PE methodology.

Steadfast was trading around a 14% discount to international brokers, according to Macquarie analysis, despite recording a long-term premium of 4.6%, suggesting upside potential.

Macquarie also cited “lower-for-longer premium rate rises and lack of accretion from acquisitions” as key short-term risks, but remained confident in Steadfast’s longer-term prospects.

“Over the long term, the ability to maximise returns on a US roll-out is key to SDF's long-term value, and we believe management can thread the needle. At current valuations, we retain our Outperform recommendation.”

FleetPartners Group Ltd (ASX: FPR)

• Sector: Financial services
• Market cap: $702 million
• 12-month price target: $3.77 (up from $3.65)

Vehicle leasing and fleet management company, FleetPartners, saw its 1H25 NPATA come in near the top of the guidance range at $38.9 million, but was down 7% year-on-year (YoY) due to falling end-of-lease (EOL) income.

AUMOF (assets under management or finance) was up 6%, with margins steady and costs up 2.5%. 

New business written was down 17% YoY due mostly to the impact of the transition from FPR’s Accelerate system, which should deliver $6 million in annualised cost savings once completed.

But with used car prices expected to stabilise, Macquarie is forecasting higher EOL income, leading to an earnings per share up 8.5% for FY25E and 7.6% for FY26E.

FPR is trading at an undemanding multiple (<10x PE). Operating conditions support earnings and are largely offsetting ongoing normalisation of EOL. The buyback is supporting EPS performance.