It’s a rare opportunity to get to sit down with an economist of the calibre of Tim Toohey from Ellerston Capital. He was formerly the Managing Director, Chief Economist, and Head of Macro Strategy for Australia and New Zealand at Goldman Sachs, where he earned a reputation as one of Australia’s best macro forecasters. In 2017, he joined Tudor Investments’ star portfolio manager, Brett Gillespie, in setting up the Global Macro Fund at Ellerston Capital. So, when offered the opportunity to talk to Tim for the best part of an hour, I made sure to cover off all the big topics concerning investors today; Australian rates and consumers, Fed policy, the turnaround in China, and of course, the possibility of a housing-driven recession in Australia. Tune in to the latest episode of The Rules of Investing podcast below to hear his take on the world today.

Time stamps:

  • 2:05: Yogi Berra and the range of possibilities
  • 6:30: What are bond managers trying to tell us?
  • 8:45: Employment is going to get interesting
  • 14:10: Why a robust consumer will be key
  • 16:22: The policy of least regret
  • 23:15: When will the cut come?
  • 25:15: Upbeat but mindful about China
  • 30:30: Will the Chinese buyers come back?
  • 31:40: Chance of an Aussie recession?
  • 34:30: What will get the Fed going again?
  • 41:08: So, what are you reading?
  • 42:12: If you had a time machine ...
  • 43:37: The biggest risk

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