australian economy

Latest news and analysis on australian economy

Macro

Australian growth on the mend - implications for profits and interest rates

While there are reasons for caution, there are also reasons for optimism as the wealth effect holds up the consumer and drives share market.
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

Aussie banks issue more bonds with local funds now the main domestic buyer

Bank funding is relying more on bank bonds and local investment and pension funds have grown in importance as buyers of these bonds.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The need to raise living standards through productivity

Unless Australia invests more in its workers and technology, poor productivity will leave living standards stuck in a rut.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The RBA trims the neutral policy rate and lowers potential output, productivity growth, & the NAIRU

The RBA has marked down potential growth on slower productivity growth, while trimming the neutral policy rate and lowering the NAIRU.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Poor Australian productivity – why all the fuss? And what to do about it?

Wages, inflation, and living standards hinge on one thing: productivity. The answer? Tough economic reform.
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

The return of the term premium

The return of the term premium, which could increase given the deteriorating fiscal outlook, points to the risk of higher US bond yields.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

China – the tariff threat, structural challenges and implications for Australia

Australia is now less sensitive to China, but Chinese growth is likely to be enough to keep the iron ore price elevated.
Shane Oliver
AMP
Rapid Fire

Big opportunity but lots of risk - Morgan Stanley's take on markets

Morgan Stanley's Chris Nicol shares risks to watch, how he is positioning portfolios and a big opportunity.
Sara Allen
Livewire Markets
Macro

The end of the COVID-era migration boom

The massive migration-led boom in population growth is over, with growth back at pre-pandemic levels in most countries, including Australia
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The tail risk of a spike in oil prices

If the tail risk of a spike in oil prices is realised, history shows oil shocks often contribute to deeper-than-normal recessions.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Advance Australia, fair? Morgan Stanley’s local outlook remains relatively positive on the ASX, the dollar and growth

Morgan Stanley’s Chris Nicol says Australia is in a decent spot despite tariffs, slow growth and an expensive stock market.
Tom Stelzer
Livewire Markets
Macro

The RBA marks down the neutral cash rate again

RBA staff have revised down the estimated neutral rate cash rate to c2¾%, although it is not clear if policy-makers take it at face value.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Asset Allocation

Nothing is cheap but there's no systemic crisis, Australia is going OK

In a wide ranging conversation, Schroders Head of Multi-Asset, Sebastian Mullins, gives his take on the global economy and markets
Chris Conway
Livewire Markets
Education

“We’re uncompetitive and soft”: Rob Millner on why companies won’t list, and houses don’t get built

Day by day, Australia is becoming less competitive – and it’s punishing investors and homebuyers alike.
BKW
Vishal Teckchandani
Livewire Markets
Macro

QLD's budget "black hole" a catalyst for government action

The new state government is forecasting a substantially worse budget outlook, with a massive increase in public debt.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

RBA still likely to argue demand is exceeding supply

Updated RBA estimates of spare capacity suggest that demand still exceeds supply, both in terms of activity and the labour market.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

RBA: Policy not as tight as peers, which is why inflation is higher

The RBA has highlighted how policy is less tight than other countries, such that inflation is higher than in nearly all its peers.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Could the RBA not cut interest rates at all?

A new view being espoused in the economics community is raising eyebrows. But does it have any legs?
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

These economists say there is just a 15% chance of a recession in Australia in 2024

And where will the Australian Dollar end the year? Find out the answer to this and other questions in the next episode of Signal or Noise!
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

Australian corporate insolvencies set new record

ASIC Australian corporate insolvencies reached their highest level since monthly data were first published in January 1999.
Jason Lindeman
Coolabah Capital
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