australian economy

Latest news and analysis on australian economy

Macro

The return of the term premium

The return of the term premium, which could increase given the deteriorating fiscal outlook, points to the risk of higher US bond yields.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

China – the tariff threat, structural challenges and implications for Australia

Australia is now less sensitive to China, but Chinese growth is likely to be enough to keep the iron ore price elevated.
Shane Oliver
AMP
Rapid Fire

Big opportunity but lots of risk - Morgan Stanley's take on markets

Morgan Stanley's Chris Nicol shares risks to watch, how he is positioning portfolios and a big opportunity.
Sara Allen
Livewire Markets
Macro

The end of the COVID-era migration boom

The massive migration-led boom in population growth is over, with growth back at pre-pandemic levels in most countries, including Australia
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The tail risk of a spike in oil prices

If the tail risk of a spike in oil prices is realised, history shows oil shocks often contribute to deeper-than-normal recessions.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Advance Australia, fair? Morgan Stanley’s local outlook remains relatively positive on the ASX, the dollar and growth

Morgan Stanley’s Chris Nicol says Australia is in a decent spot despite tariffs, slow growth and an expensive stock market.
Tom Stelzer
Livewire Markets
Macro

The RBA marks down the neutral cash rate again

RBA staff have revised down the estimated neutral rate cash rate to c2¾%, although it is not clear if policy-makers take it at face value.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Asset Allocation

Nothing is cheap but there's no systemic crisis, Australia is going OK

In a wide ranging conversation, Schroders Head of Multi-Asset, Sebastian Mullins, gives his take on the global economy and markets
Chris Conway
Livewire Markets
Education

“We’re uncompetitive and soft”: Rob Millner on why companies won’t list, and houses don’t get built

Day by day, Australia is becoming less competitive – and it’s punishing investors and homebuyers alike.
BKW
Vishal Teckchandani
Livewire Markets
Macro

QLD's budget "black hole" a catalyst for government action

The new state government is forecasting a substantially worse budget outlook, with a massive increase in public debt.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

RBA still likely to argue demand is exceeding supply

Updated RBA estimates of spare capacity suggest that demand still exceeds supply, both in terms of activity and the labour market.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

RBA: Policy not as tight as peers, which is why inflation is higher

The RBA has highlighted how policy is less tight than other countries, such that inflation is higher than in nearly all its peers.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Could the RBA not cut interest rates at all?

A new view being espoused in the economics community is raising eyebrows. But does it have any legs?
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

These economists say there is just a 15% chance of a recession in Australia in 2024

And where will the Australian Dollar end the year? Find out the answer to this and other questions in the next episode of Signal or Noise!
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

Australian corporate insolvencies set new record

ASIC Australian corporate insolvencies reached their highest level since monthly data were first published in January 1999.
Jason Lindeman
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Persistent excess demand vs returning inflation to target

The RBA optimistically expects inflation will return to target without spare capacity emerging in the economy.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Central banks are driving markets - here's what you need to know

The coming quarter will be dominated by central bank activity, along with geopolitical activity.
Arian Neiron
VanEck
Macro

Does a flood of excess capital mean higher valuations?

There are a lot of "potential" investors on my mailing list. Waiting for the right entry point into the market. Some have been there for almost a decade, watching,...
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

Australians continue to run down their COVID-era savings

Households continue to follow the US experience, drawing on the excess savings built up during the pandemic.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

RBA keeps interest rates on hold, no cut on the horizon

The RBA stayed on hold today, but there were several “subtle but important” changes to the statement. We investigate if a cut is any closer.
Carl Capolingua
Livewire Markets
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