australian economy

Catch 22 for RBA

Cameron Rae
Cameron Rae Laminar Capital

Australian households are on average better off than they have ever been mostly because of the large increases in household wealth over recent years and a low unemployment rate closing in on what might be considered the “full-employment” unemployment rate. Yet in this age of comparative plenty the household sector... Show More

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Australia: The land of the rolling Boom

Guy Carson
Guy Carson TAMIM Asset Management

Australia has just celebrated 26 years without a recession and the Government as well as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are cheering the ongoing growth. In fact, the common consensus amongst these authorities is that growth is set to rebound from its current 1.9% year on year rate and... Show More

Australian rates heading to zero

Livewire Exclusive

As global rates start to rise, Australia may follow in the short-term, but structural issues will prevent the RBA from hiking rates far, explains Chris Watling, CEO of Longview Economics. Any rate-hikes from the RBA will be short-lived, he says, and those structural issues will force Australian rates to zero. Show More

CEO Insights from Ian Narev, John Borghetti and Nick Scali

NAOS Asset Management
NAOS Asset Management Listed Investment Companies (LICs) ASX: NCC, ASX: NAC

“It’s in their [The Telco’s] interest to just flick people to the low speed plans as the lower access charge makes a higher margin for them” Nicholas Demos, CEO, MyRepublic. Below are quotes from the week which in our view detail some of the most important and prominent industry trends... Show More

Five charts to keep an eye on

Nikko Asset Management Australia

As commodity prices have risen, the Australian economy is set to benefit from these continuing gains. Australia’s improving terms of trade has led to a big increase in nominal GDP, which is now growing at 6.1% year-on-year. As commodity prices have moved higher in the first half of 2017, this... Show More

Could GDP surprise to the downside once again?

Patrick Poke
Patrick Poke Livewire Markets

GDP surprised to the downside in the September quarter; despite consensus expectations of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) growth, the actual result was -0.5%. According to FactSet, economists are more bullish this quarter, with consensus estimates sitting at 0.8%. But a recent slew of poor data could be calling this into question. Show More

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Leashing the Red Dragon: Chinese Investment in Australian Real Estate

Costa Argyrou
Costa Argyrou Trident Real Estate Captial

China has experienced an exceptional GDP growth rate of 12.9% per annum over the past 20 years. Yet over the next 12 to 18 months, Chinese investors will struggle to come up with the funds to meet their obligations arising from off-the-plan apartment purchases. Chinese nationals are facing a double... Show More

10 predictions for equities in 2017

Chris Stott
Chris Stott Wilson Asset Management

After a tumultuous 2016, the share market has had a solid start to the new year prolonging the so-called ‘Trump Rally’ which has seen Australian equities rally more than 10.0% from their intraday lows on 9 November when Trump was elected. With the year now underway and reporting season around... Show More

ABS housing data points to pain ahead

Patrick Poke
Patrick Poke Livewire Markets

The oft-discussed apartment oversupply appears to be coming to a head. Two important pieces of forward-looking ABS data have been released this week and the results are not encouraging. Yesterday’s building approvals saw a massive 24.8% fall in approvals for units month-on-month – though the seasonally adjusted figures can be... Show More

2016: A Most Reasonable Year for the Economy

Stephen Koukoulas
Stephen Koukoulas Market Economics Pty Ltd

The Australian economy is in reasonable shape as 2016 draws to a close. Real GDP growth is around three per cent, inflation is 1.5 percent while the unemployment rate is hovering near 5.75 percent. To be sure, it would be desirable if growth was a little stronger and unemployment lower,... Show More

A few worrying facts on employment

Stephen Koukoulas
Stephen Koukoulas Market Economics Pty Ltd

The recent labour market data threw up a few disconcerting facts about the economy. Since the July 2016 election, employment has fallen by 25,650 people despite growth of over 70,000 in the working age population. The Coalition government plan for 1 million jobs in 5 years is in tatters. Since... Show More

Is the Aussie economy back on track for growth?

Stephen Koukoulas
Stephen Koukoulas Market Economics Pty Ltd

The interest rate cutting cycle appears to be over. This is not because inflation is accelerating – on the contrary, inflation remains low and looks like staying low for some time. Rather, interest rates are on hold is because the RBA is looking at a range of indicators that are... Show More

Australian housing: Unit supply is surging

AMP Capital
AMP Capital Fund Manager

Expensive housing and high household debt leave Australian housing vulnerable. But without a recession or much higher interest rates a property crash is unlikely. However, the surging supply of apartments and the continuing strength of the Sydney and Melbourne property markets pose an increasing risk. Average dwelling prices in these... Show More

Australia’s ongoing income recession

Livewire Exclusive

Investors and the media have a tendency to focus on real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth, but after two decades of low inflation, Sam Ferraro, Founder of Evidente, says it’s nominal GDP we should be watching. Fund managers and analysts forecast nominal cashflows and households earn nominal wages, not inflation-adjusted wages. "It's... Show More

What to expect from Phillip Lowe’s first meeting as RBA Governor

Bianca Hartge-Hazelman

There’s only a small number of women in top economic roles in Australia’s financial markets but that’s still a lot more than there was a decade ago and today, their views carry more than some serious weight. Financy interviewed four of these women on rates, growth and property ahead of... Show More

Cheer up Australia, it’s not that bad!

Nick Griffin
Nick Griffin Munro Partners

Nick Griffin, Head of Investments at Munro Partners, has been living in the UK for the last two years, and it’s given him a unique perspective on the Australian economy. “We have an office in Edinburgh, the second largest financial centre in Europe. Scotland is a country that’s trying to... Show More