Melbourne Cup provides a Bullish Setup for Australian Equities

Probability Trader

Melbourne Cup provides a Bullish Setup for Australian Equities. In Australia the press dub the Melbourne Cup as the race that stops a nation. It is truly one of the social events of the year & the mood of the nation tends to be exceedingly upbeat. It is also a very positive period for Australian stocks. Recording all 5-day returns up to & including the 1st Tuesday of November (Melbourne Cup Day) from 1992 to 2012 (XJO starting date May 1992), we found that the S&P ASX 200 (XJO) had a tendency to produce inordinate gains with an average move of 1.96% & winning form of 17 from 21 (max 11.08%, min -4.67%). Melbourne Cup Day returns are also reasonably positive delivering an average 1-day increase of 27 basis points with a 15 from 21 win rate.

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Probability Trader
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