Morgan Stanley's Vincent Reinhart has published a note shortly after the shutdown of the US government which began at 2pm AEST. For investors, he highlights four key implications of the shutdown, which he expects to be short. The shutdown will be a 15 basis point drag on real GDP growth at an annualised rate for each week it continues. Data releases, including employment figures for September will be delayed and its quality compromised. On the other hand, all treasury payments will be processed as the Federal Reserve continues to operate. On the duration of the shutdown he says the heat will build on politicians from constituents who were furloughed, inconvenienced, or fearful of market consequences. That is why we believe the odds favour a short event - over in one week. (VIEW LINK)
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