MOVE TACTICALLY SHORT THE AUSSIE DOLLAR: In particular, our proprietary trading models are back on SELL - while markets have largely priced in the shift in the...

Harry Colvin

Longview Economics

MOVE TACTICALLY SHORT THE AUSSIE DOLLAR: In particular, our proprietary trading models are back on SELL - while markets have largely priced in the shift in the RBA's policy stance... The economy has shown signs of cyclical strength in recent months. The service sector PMI, for example, is up sharply (>50) and housing has re-accelerated. With that - the policy stance of the RBA has shifted (with a rate hike now more likely than a rate cut) and markets have priced in a more hawkish outlook (to some degree - e.g. see the back up in 1 & 2 year yields & recent currency strength). Australia's underlying macro challenges, though, remain ongoing (e.g. high/rising external debt, a large current account deficit, over-reliance on China/resources and so on). With that - a number of models are back on SELL -e.g. see our net speculative positioning (deviation from trend) model attached...


Harry Colvin specialises in global asset allocation, macro themes, and commodities. He has built and developed Longview's commodity research process, timing models, trade recommendations and research products.

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