Poor NFP print, JOLT report trending down and uncertainty over data quality in Oct/Nov due to shutdown mean Fed unlikely to even taper prior to Q2 2014

Jordan Eliseo

Poor NFP print, JOLT report trending down and uncertainty over data quality in Oct/Nov due to shutdown mean Fed unlikely to even taper prior to Q2 2014. Wouldn't rule out expansion either, which Bernanke has touched on. CPI print in Oz worrying RBA, but not as much as Sydney housing, and AUD strength. In light of likely non-taper, worth sharing the article below which appeared in Bloomberg at start of year. Most FOMC participants at Dec 12 meeting saw Fed 'ending QE' in 2013 - not just tapering. Say's it all regards Fed's ability as economic forecaster. Also worth asking, if FOMC was confident it could end QE by end 2013, why did it, in the same meeting more than double it (from USD $40bn to USD $85bn a month) in Dec 2012. 2013 to be remembered as the year of maximum economic talk up, even as data has remained lukewarm at best. (VIEW LINK)


Jordan Eliseo

ABC Bullion Chief Economist. Gold bull since early 2000s, have spent +20yrs working in investment analytics, research & portfolio construction. Author of two books on investing in gold and causes of the GFC. Lover of markets, competition & technology

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