Probability Trader

S&P 500 - Calendar Year to October return of > 20% is Bullish for November & December. For the calendar year to date the S&P 500 Index has rallied over 20%. After such a strong upward move it is very hard to resist the temptation of fading this market strength. However, the historic record suggests that this type of market momentum usually continues into the back two months of the year. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has produced 6 gains of more than 20% for the calendar year to October. Counter intuitively, following these above average moves, the S&P 500 delivered an average return of 6.38% for the combined 2-month November & December period, with a flawless win rate of 6 from 6 (max 13.57%, min 1.29%). Full data analysis can be viewed at (VIEW LINK)


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James Marlay

Definitely a sentiment change floating in the wings, the 6 from 6 win rate is compelling but listening to plenty of participants starting to feel nervous about the current rally