The last two weeks have been at odds with our expectations – the market has gone into capitulation mode judging by price action and record outflows. The ‘late cycle’ fears have now rolled through to all sectors; the S&P 500 is off 13.1% since its highs in mid-September (as at... Show More
Following on from the popular post on the seasonal turning point for the VIX last week, here's an insight into seasonality for the S&P500. The chart shows 2017 superimposed on the historical average price movement across the year, and it looks like a fairly decent fit, with the implication being... Show More
With US leading economic indicators still rising, a sustained fall in economic activity and the share market is not currently being signalled. Show More
Here's 10 charts on the S&P500 covering the short term outlook, medium term earnings outlook, US election, and political risk. Overall a similar conclusion from last week holds i.e. that short-term there remains some risks, but medium term the outlook is positive on the back of improving earnings. Aside from... Show More
Here goes 10 charts on the S&P500 which evoke both bullish and bearish thoughts. The bearish ones are generally shorter-term in nature while the bullish ones are more medium term... The simplest way to reconcile it is that we could easily see a correction early this year before the market... Show More
In this week's edition, based only on the limited selection of charts, you would say that price is very strong, and that it's at least partly justified by improving fundamentals. While increasingly bullish sentiment and overbought indicators open up the possibility of a short-term correction, if the improving fundamentals trend... Show More
As the world awaits the outcome of the US Presidential and Congressional elections, one important trend that has been largely overlooked during the period of election uncertainty is the return to profit growth of the US corporate sector. Show More
The Dow Jones previously generated a technical sell signal at 18,085 on 9/9/16. Last night the Dow generated a secondary technical top / technical sell signal. This further negative technical break re-enforces the expectation for a pullback to 17,480 - the minimum expectation for a pullback. It is significant... Show More
Some investors and many people in the media tend not to understand the concept of secular bull markets and so they date the start of this one to March of 2009. This is so wrong for so many reasons I can’t even get into them all. We do not measure... Show More
The S&P500 index has the potential to generate a technical top formation / technical sell signal, and is located marginally above key technical support. A close below 2168 is required to generate a technical sell signal. (Although the index spiked below this level during intra-session trading on Friday night, it... Show More
