S&P 500 - When October is Strong it Pays to be Long

Probability Trader

S&P 500 - When October is Strong it Pays to be Long. For US investors the 6-month period that we are about to enter, is seasonally positive. Since 1970, the average return for the November to April period of 7% is inordinately larger than the average 1% return on offer for the May to October interval. We would also note that when October is strong it pays to be long. Since 1970, the S&P 500 has produced 13 Octobers with gains in excess of 3%. Rallies of greater than 3% in October had a tendency to enhance returns for the November to April period delivering an average return of 12.65% with a 12 from 13 win rate (max 24.08%, min -4.47%). If the S&P 500 manages to close above 1732 (currently 1752, Oct gain 4.19%) it may add more upside to this particular seasonal pattern.

Probability Trader

Probabilitytrader is an independent financial research group that provides objective analysis for traders of Global Stock Market Index CFDs, ETFs, Futures, and Options. Our forward looking analysis covers timeframes as short as 1-day to as long as...


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equities usa s&p500


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