Probability Trader

S&P 500 - When October is Strong it Pays to be Long. For US investors the 6-month period that we are about to enter, is seasonally positive. Since 1970, the average return for the November to April period of 7% is inordinately larger than the average 1% return on offer for the May to October interval. We would also note that when October is strong it pays to be long. Since 1970, the S&P 500 has produced 13 Octobers with gains in excess of 3%. Rallies of greater than 3% in October had a tendency to enhance returns for the November to April period delivering an average return of 12.65% with a 12 from 13 win rate (max 24.08%, min -4.47%). If the S&P 500 manages to close above 1732 (currently 1752, Oct gain 4.19%) it may add more upside to this particular seasonal pattern.


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