Livewire has acquired Market Index, the country’s leader in free stock market data.
Find out why.

The battle among iron ore price forecasters has begun

John Robertson

PortfolioDirect

The battle among iron ore price forecasters has begun. Former BHP Billiton executive Alberto Calderon ($70/t), Westpac chief economist Bill Evans ($120+) and Joel Crane from Morgan Stanley ($85-95) all put their views on Tuesday. Bloomberg's median 2016 forecast was $103. Cost structures among the expanding market leaders justify a forecast of lower prices. On past occasions when prices have fallen, large numbers of Chinese iron ore miners incurring losses on their production took the brunt of the adjustment. Their exit from the market resulted in tightening market balances and restoration of higher prices. In the short term, the same effect could be repeated but permanent replacement of Chinese production with lower cost production elsewhere would also imply permanently lower prices. Prices above $100 will need continuing growth in demand combined with a commitment among the Chinese to stay the course.


John Robertson
John Robertson
PortfolioDirect

John Robertson is Chief Investment Strategist for PortfolioDirect a provider of resource sector investment stock ratings and portfolio strategies for mining and oil and gas investors. He has worked as a policy economist, corporate business...

Expertise

No areas of expertise

I would like to

Only to be used for sending genuine email enquiries to the Contributor. Livewire Markets Pty Ltd reserves its right to take any legal or other appropriate action in relation to misuse of this service.

Personal Information Collection Statement
Your personal information will be passed to the Contributor and/or its authorised service provider to assist the Contributor to contact you about your investment enquiry. They are required not to use your information for any other purpose. Our privacy policy explains how we store personal information and how you may access, correct or complain about the handling of personal information.