The commodity supply overhang has not disappeared
I still feel the $A should be lower than it is at present. Holding up the $A of late has been a more dovish than expected Federal Reserve, but with the US labour market still firm and early signs of a list in US inflation, it seems only a matter of time before the US lifts interest rates again. At the same time, commodity market fundamentals have not changed, with a supply overhang still likely to weigh heavily on prices.
Author, columnist, investment strategist and macro-economist. Previous roles at Federal Treasury, OECD, Macquarie Bank and AFR. I develop economic insights and portfolio construction strategies for BetaShares' retail and adviser clients.