The gold market has been range bound the last couple of weeks, frustrating many who thought it would catch a 'safe-haven' bid in light of the US shutdown and debt ceiling debacle. Whilst this has helped support prices (they've held up better than equities), investors aren't yet willing to step back into the market with any great vigour, especially with sentiment towards metals overwhelmingly bearish. Goldman Sachs recently called gold a slam dunk sell (because the Fed will taper as the economy improves), whilst JP Morgan were bearish because the economy won't improve, hence no inflation. We're still sticking with our holdings in both gold and silver, confident they'll outperform all traditional asset classes over the next 5 years, if not the next 5 months. If we see gold re-test the June lows at 1100-1200 it will be a historical buying opportunity for brave and long-term focused investors
Inevitably, it may not be until 2015, investors will start to worry about inflation. We'll have to get past the debt ceiling issues, tapering, and other non-standard events. But at some tipping point in the future, positive economic data will once again correlate to rising inflation expectations. When that happens, history suggests gold will catch a bid. In the meantime, there's a floor on the price of gold due to geopolitical risk and uncertainty. In terms of strategy, I believe it's a good scenario to sell copious amounts of put spreads.