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The IMF said today that analysts should watch China's lending growth rate rather than GDP to gauge the state of the Chinese economy although GDP growth should...

John Robertson

PortfolioDirect

The IMF said today that analysts should watch China's lending growth rate rather than GDP to gauge the state of the Chinese economy although GDP growth should be kept well above 7%. In launching its Asian outlook report in Hong Kong, Fund executives expressed confidence that excess lending can be curtailed using existing policy tools. They drew on their recent meetings with Chinese officials to conclude that policymakers are very aware of what needs to happen. Borrowing growth running at more than 13% a year even as output growth has decelerated to a annualised rate of less than 6% in the first quarter of 2014 signals growing excess capacity or inefficient use of investment funds. The IMF also observed that stronger growth in USA and Europe should assist exports from the region. Asian developing economies are growing more strongly than developing economies elsewhere.


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John Robertson
John Robertson
PortfolioDirect

John Robertson is Chief Investment Strategist for PortfolioDirect a provider of resource sector investment stock ratings and portfolio strategies for mining and oil and gas investors. He has worked as a policy economist, corporate business...

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