The key to a new metal price cycle is a positive growth surprise
John Robertson
PortfolioDirect
The key to a new metal price cycle is a positive growth surprise. Unexpectedly strong growth would boost sentiment but also help to soak up inventories and, where necessary, reduce excess capacity by catching producers off-guard. If producers are correctly anticipating the growth outlook and matching market needs, there is no reason for any cyclical adjustment. One indicator of the potential for surprise is the direction of IMF global growth revisions. The IMF has had to wind back its forecasts over the past four years. Forecast increases would normally imply better than currently expected outcomes. The IMF head has foreshadowed another downgrade in coming weeks: ...on balance, global activity is strengthening - but could be weaker than we had expected..., she said last week. This is the wrong direction.
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John Robertson is Chief Investment Strategist for PortfolioDirect a provider of resource sector investment stock ratings and portfolio strategies for mining and oil and gas investors. He has worked as a policy economist, corporate business strategist and investment market professional for over 30 years after starting his career as a Commonwealth Treasury economist in Canberra. Since being Australia's top-rated commodities analyst and chief economist at one of Australia' leading stockbroking firms, he has advised companies across the mining, consumer products, IT and biotech sectors on their equity market relations. He leads the firm's investment evaluation and security structuring activities on behalf of the Australian Small Scale Offerings Board (ASSOB), the world's first equity 'crowdfunding' investment platform. John Robertson discusses the interaction of mining and investment markets in his weekly 'From the Capital' column in Mining Journal.
John Robertson
PortfolioDirect
John Robertson is Chief Investment Strategist for PortfolioDirect a provider of resource sector investment stock ratings and portfolio strategies for mining and oil and gas investors. He has worked as a policy economist, corporate business...
Expertise
No areas of expertise
John Robertson
PortfolioDirect
John Robertson is Chief Investment Strategist for PortfolioDirect a provider of resource sector investment stock ratings and portfolio strategies for mining and oil and gas investors. He has worked as a policy economist, corporate business...
Expertise
No areas of expertise
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