The model we use to track the progress of the commodity price cycle is showing a widening disparity between the historical average performance of metal prices...

John Robertson

PortfolioDirect

The model we use to track the progress of the commodity price cycle is showing a widening disparity between the historical average performance of metal prices through the cycle and current prices.  After 35 months since the peak in prices, an average cycle will have stabilised and started to show some tendencies toward the upside.  The support this directional change affords markets is an important ingredient in rebuilding investor interest in resource sector equities even if a full blown upturn in prices is some years away.  The average deviation from the benchmark through the current cycle has been 4.5%.  The difference is currently 10.6%, around the same as in the middle of 2011.


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John Robertson is Chief Investment Strategist for PortfolioDirect a provider of resource sector investment stock ratings and portfolio strategies for mining and oil and gas investors. He has worked as a policy economist, corporate business...

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