The Reserve Bank a reluctant cutter while markets chop.

Pendal Group

Pendal Group

My view is that the Reserve Bank will be a very reluctant cutter from now on. There are three things it will be watching closely. First, the overall pace of economic growth. If this continues at a mediocre pace, that will increase the likelihood of a further cut. Second, and highly correlated, is the unemployment rate. Until it is clear this has peaked there is always the chance of a further cut. Once it has clearly peaked, rates will be on the rise again, but that is almost certainly a 2016 story. Third is the behaviour of investors in the residential property market. (VIEW LINK)

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