Equities

Looking at the top 20 this Sept / Oct vs last year, we can see that they’re paying +$1.94b more than the Top 20 last year – an increase of +12.6%. So, the increase we have seen in overall dividends paid this Sept/ Oct was +$1.1b. The Top 20 (at +$1.94b) has more than compensated for the drop off in other stocks.

This table shows the movements in the best 20 biggest dividends being paid this year vs what they paid last year

Source: Coppo Report

CBA & BHP the 2 biggest paid together $7.47b (up from last year when they paid $6.8b between them)

Source: Coppo Report

In the top 20 this year companies that paid lower cash dividends – down $1.07 billion.

These were 5 main ones… but 3 stood-out Telstra, Wesfarmers (but that was matched by the increase in Coles via the de-merger) and Woodside.

Source: Coppo Report

  1. Telstra, cut its dividend from 15.5c to 11c in Sept 2018 (-29%) & this year has reduced it to 8c a reduction of -3c or -27%. That saw its div paid reduced by -$476m
  2. Woodside div went from 72.8c last year to 53.2c ... but for the year they actually paid $1.80 up from $1.35 last year (as they paid a whopping $1.27div in March 2019 vs 62.6c in March 2018) ... So, they have not disappointed .
  3. AMP - special mention has had a shocker & cut its dividend from 14.5c in Sept 2017 to in Sept 2018 to ZERO in Sept 2019. That saw its div paid reduced by -$131m in 2018 & then -$291m this Sept.

So ...why the rise??

4 of the 6 biggest increases in dividends (again, like last year) came from miners...

The biggest $ increases in dividend came from

  1. BHP alone increased its div by +$638m.
  2. RIO +$437m
  3. Fortescue +$373m
  4. Origin +$264m (from no div last time)
  5. Brambles thanks to their special dividend was up +$269m

Plus, we had Coles +473m - but that's just a Wesfarmers contra

  • Alone these 6 added +$2.44b in dividends which was more than the +$1.94m overall increase in divs paid by 20 biggest payers.

The biggest 20 this year vs what they paid at the same time last year - ranked biggest $ increase

Source: Coppo Report

As a percentage increase in the top 20

Source: Coppo Report

This chart shows how ASX (special div from IRESS sale) and Brambles (special div from sale of IFCO) had the biggest % increase over Sept / Oct last year.

Source: Coppo Report

This shows the $ increases or decreases paid by the biggest 20 dividend payers.

BHP is the standout (again as they were last year as well)

Source: Coppo Report

RIO & BHP paid record dividends this year

RIO

  • RIO in 2017 / 2018 F/Y paid 2 dividends $2.28 + $1.70 = $$3.99 with a payout of $1.48b
  • This F/Y 2018/2019 they paid 4 dividends $3.38 + $2.50 +0.88c + $2.19 = $8.97 with a payout of $3.3b
  • RIO paid an extra $1,847,914,313 in dividends on last year

BHP

  • BHP in 2017 / 2018 F/Y paid 2 dividends 88c + 70.5c = $1.59 with a payout of $4.68b
  • This F/Y 2018/2019 they paid 3 dividends $1.41 + 78c +$1.15 = $3.34 with a payout of $9.85b
  • BHP paid an extra $5,161,653,058 in dividends

BHP / RIO - would you BUY them for income ??

Normally no. But...

  • Given the Banks divs are not going up (and possibly down as we saw with NAB recently cutting div from 99c to 83c) & Telstra has disappointed retail income lovers, cutting its div every year - many got onto the big miners a few years ago & it’s been a great trade..
  • Now they are cyclical, so those who bought a few years ago for income know that the cycle can be for 3 to 4 years before the cycle turns down (world growth slows / commodity prices drop heavily) - so for now the window remains open - until the coming US recession becomes more obvious (BUT - it’s still looks like not until 2022 at this stage)
  • But if world growth looks like it will take a hit in the near term from trade War - then this strategy needs to be reconsidered - very quickly.
  • Many think we have seen the best of dividends (specials) from these 2 ...

Both stocks dividend paid in 2018 & again in 2019

But looking at just BHP & RIO (given they have a good dividend history to look at.. we see that in the last 19 years

BHP

  • Has cut its dividend just 4 times, one was massive (when commodity prices were collapsing) while the other 3 times weren’t too bad.
  • But after they have cut dividends & then increased after - they kept increasing (since 2004) 6 consecutive years & (2011) 5 consecutive years.
  • History shows that they are unlikely to be cutting any time soon (Unless China blows up or US slips into a recession in 2021)

RIO

  • Has cut its div 5 times in last 19 years - when they cut they are bigger cuts but again when they go back up they have 2 years twice & 5 years more recently (2011 to 2015).

How BHP & RIO have (mostly) increased their dividends in the last 19 years (the last 2 have been boosted by huge special divs)

Source: Coppo Report

Charts showing BHP dividends each year increasing or decreasing on previous year

Source: Coppo Report

Charts showing RIO dividends each year increasing or decreasing on previous year

Source: Coppo Report

Dollar amount of dividends being PAID - each day - this week and NEXT week




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