The unusual investment strategy that's returned more than 30% this year

Plus, your morning report takes a look at three companies on brokers' radars.
The Morning Wrap

Livewire Markets

MARKETS WRAP

Note: us markets are closed today because of the Thanksgiving holiday.

Source: Investing.com

THE CALENDAR

Today's calendar is fairly quiet. Only New Zealand retail sales for the third quarter are out today, and that's interesting purely as a forward indicator for whether inflation could come down anytime soon. 

Next week, it's all eyes on US jobs data and the latest round of OPEC+ meetings. And while we'll tell you more about that on Monday, I thought it'd be worth sharing with you this chart from FactSet through the Wall Street Journal. The divergence between New York Crude Oil prices and the S&P 500 Energy Index is starting to show. 

And the divergence is also showing in Australia. While the ASX Energy Index is up nearly 50% year-on-year, Brent Crude prices have come off markedly.

Source: Trading View
Source: Trading View

THE CHART

For our chart today, I've called on the work of Charlie Bilello, who published this interesting chart on what would have happened had you traded the S&P 500 index this year. The twist is that the trading strategy channels a little Warren Buffett: buy when the VIX is over 30 and sell when it's less than 20. 

If you followed that strategy to the letter, you'd now be up 27% year-to-date. Had you done the inverse (i.e. buy during calm or periods of low volatility, and sell during the panic), you'd actually be down 33%.

So I guess it does pay to be a contrarian!

THE TWEET

FinTwit is still obsessed over this FTX drama, but even you couldn't write this script. Yes, that is the now-bankrupt founder of FTX being described as a "philanthropist". 
FinTwit is still obsessed over this FTX drama, but even you couldn't write this script. Yes, that is the now-bankrupt founder of FTX being described as a "philanthropist". 

STOCKS TO WATCH

Today's stocks to watch have all made new announcements this week. In each case, we've also picked out situations where a broker has raised the price target or made rating changes. 

Macquarie has boosted the price target on CSL (ASX: CSL) by $13.50, following US FDA approval for the company's haemophilia gene therapy. The broker thinks there could be as much as an extra 6% added to earnings by the end of the decade as a result.

Credit Suisse, Macquarie, and Ord Minnett have all raised their price targets on Qantas (ASX: QAN) following its earnings guidance upgrade earlier this week. 

And after Smartgroup (ASX: SIQ) downgraded its earnings guidance earlier this week due to supply chain constraints, Macquarie has downgraded the company to a NEUTRAL from outperform, with a new price target of $4.75/share.


Hans Lee wrote today's report. Chris Conway is away today.

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The Morning Wrap
Markets Wrap
Livewire Markets

Livewire and Market Index's pre-opening bell news and analysis wrap. Available weekday mornings and written by Kerry Sun.

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