There’s been a lot of talk of inverted yield curves in the US and whether they portend a recession or a stock market crash. But, I wonder whether we need to watch the yield curve as much as exuberance in stocks themselves?US yield curve inversionCurrently about 3/5ths of the US... Show More
The following is an extract from a note that was recently sent to investors in the Montaka Global Fund. At Montaka, we believe there are five major forces that will significantly shape investment returns over the coming decades. One of these relates to the “New World Order” that is currently... Show More
After several years of plain sailing, investors are now having to contend with global markets that are far more risky. These market conditions have been created by an almost perfect storm of global issues. While the issues are out of our control, there are important steps we can take when... Show More
Catch up on this week’s top stories around bouncy global markets, Elon Musk’s space race, and Amazon’s next venture. Plus, what it all means for you and your investments. Show More
Last week saw an abrupt gear change, with global equity markets taking a step backwards and volatility suddenly spiking much higher although so far, the market disruption hasn’t had much of an impact on overall valuations. In this video Tim gives you a perspective on how here at Montgomery we... Show More
Catch up on this week’s top stories around volatile markets, Apple’s cash plan, and cryptocurrency meltdowns. Plus what it all means for you and your investments. Show More
The US market has become more complex. Earnings have been strong during 2017 but multiples are highly elevated, meaning there are increasingly fewer opportunities. One of the biggest risks for markets would have to be US equities. It’s more than 50% of the MSCI World Index, and where many people... Show More
Right now, investors are facing two options: invest in the market’s momentum, while acknowledging that low returns are likely; or step aside, given the risk of low returns and higher volatility. Of late, we’ve chosen the latter option, as we are convinced it is the rational approach. But many investors... Show More
Hamish Douglass, the CEO, CIO and Lead Portfolio Manager (Global), discusses why capital preservation is important, gives his five biggest risks for global markets and explains why he is cautiously optimistic about President Donald Trump’s pro-growth. Show More
Each half, we provide a series of “anti-forecasts” for what will NOT happen over this period. Discover whether our July 2016 calls ended up being right. Next week, we will publish our forecasts for the coming six months. http://www.morphicasset.com/blog/scorecard-anti-forecasts-dec-16/?woo_source=Livewire/ Show More
The reaction of the markets was instructive on the day of the election results. Once the outcome was known, Asian and European markets placed their bets and markets sold off. By the end of the following day’s US trading, they were proved to be 100% incorrect. So even with a... Show More
How will the US presidential contest between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump shape Q416? Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank, explains his view on what awaits us. Speaking from New York, he says that it is clear that the US is in a state of emergency outside its major... Show More
They will call it something else but “helicopter money” is coming. With interest rate cutting and quantitative easing reaching the limits of their effectiveness, central banks are pressed to come up with new tricks. If this does in fact come to fruition, there will need to be a number of... Show More
A nasty March is what Saxo's Chief Economist, Steen Jakobsen is expecting. He points to the increasing strength of the US dollar which, he says, will kill commodity stabilisation as well as the ability of emerging markets to revitalise the global economy. He also points to the Bank of Japan... Show More
In recent weeks, there have been four economic and political factors that are highly significant for asset market psychology and therefore the direction of markets. Show More
If anyone had thought that the Chair of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen was going to calm the markets last week, they couldn't have been more wrong. And that proves what Saxo Bank's Chief Economist, Steen Jakobsen and Saxo's head of FX Strategy, John Hardy, have been saying for some... Show More
Gains from 2014 and 2015 have been wiped out thanks to January 2016. So says Saxo's Chief Economist, Steen Jakobsen. Many are pointing the finger at China, but he says its economic slowdown is not new news. He feels the dragon is only being used as a scapegoat. Steen explains... Show More
The markets are in for a big surprise as they do not seem to grasp just how determined the US Federal Reserve is to increase interest rates, says Saxo Chief Economist Steen Jacobsen. He looks at what to expect as the Fed embarks on its first rate hiking cycle in... Show More
As a lot of Livewire Markets readers would know by now, it is widely expected that the US Fed will hike rates this week. But just to make sure we're covering everything, Saxo Capital Markets’s Kay Van-Petersen responds to one simple question: What would happen if the US Fed doesn’t... Show More
Recent policy announcements have caused gyrations on world bond and equity markets, as ECB considers more monetary policy stimulation; Chinese administration moved to support its financial system with lower interest rate settings; the US Federal Reserve continues to doing nothing; and the Japanese Central bank continues its asset purchasing policy... Show More