The US Presidential election - Lessons for investors and forecasters

The surprise election of Mr Donald Trump as 45th President of the United States – by a convincing majority in the electoral college – raises four questions that forecasters and investors need to confront. Why did Mr Trump win? What inferences – if any – can investors make about an global anti-establishment movement? Following on from the surprise Brexit decision, why did the polls fail to predict Mr Trump’s victory? Going forward, what does a Trump presidency look like for risk assets? In this post, Evidente offers some preliminary answers to these questions. (VIEW LINK)