The US Presidential election - Lessons for investors and forecasters

Sam Ferraro

The surprise election of Mr Donald Trump as 45th President of the United States – by a convincing majority in the electoral college – raises four questions that forecasters and investors need to confront. Why did Mr Trump win? What inferences – if any – can investors make about an global anti-establishment movement? Following on from the surprise Brexit decision, why did the polls fail to predict Mr Trump’s victory? Going forward, what does a Trump presidency look like for risk assets? In this post, Evidente offers some preliminary answers to these questions. (VIEW LINK)


Sam Ferraro

Founder of Evidente, Salvatore Ferraro, is a top rated quantitative analyst and has over 17 years of experience in financial markets, with investment banks, Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch, providing advice on best practice to portfolio managers...

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James Marlay

Great article Sam, a good summation of key questions.

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