In my AFR column I reflect on Xi Jinping's masterful manipulation of Donald Trump and why a profound change in global hedging costs could radically reduce the returns Australian investors receive when allocating to US equities and US bonds (click on that link to read for free or AFR subs... Show More
In my AFR column I argue that Donald Trump's "tape bombs" are the tail wagging the global financial market dog right now, and this volatility begets opportunity (click on that link to read for free or AFR subs can click here for direct access). Excerpt enclosed: Show More
What could Facebook’s new feed, Donald Trump’s tweets, and a cryptocurrency crackdown have to do with you and your investments? Show More
Despite our many worries about the world, we think it quite probable that the S&P Index has not yet peaked. Indeed, we think that the US market could accelerate its rise. I outline three reasons why, and one way to trade it, below: Show More
Gold’s best friends at present are the US Federal Reserve and Donald Trump. The US dollar is weakening as the opposition of two more Republican senators to the US healthcare bill this week meant the measure is effectively dead in its current form. Show More
If you weren’t aware of Twitter before the US Presidential race, then you surely are now. Provided you don’t use more than 140 characters, Twitter is a social media platform that largely lets you share any thought that crosses your mind with the entire world. Show More
The usual stock market mantra is that you sell on the rumour and buy on the fact. With a significant rally ensuing after Donald Trump’s surprise election win, is it the same here? Should you sell now that the new President has been inaugurated and the risks of a Trump... Show More
President Trump recently claimed he will be “the greatest jobs producer that God ever created”. Economists debate how much presidents actually influence job creation and President Trump is coming into office at a time when the US economy is already close to full employment in the opinion of the US... Show More
This time last year, JCB Advisory Board Economist, Saul Eslake warned of the risks of a Yuan devaluation: “A large devaluation of the Yuan would add renewed impetus to the deflationary pressures that policymakers in advanced economies are hoping will ebb this year.” This proved prescient as markets saw a sharp... Show More
In The Australian Financial Review I return to a thesis I championed years ago---escalating geopolitical volatility as the once dominant global hegemon, America, grapples with China, its first non-democratic rival since the Soviet Union with secular uncertainty amplified by the asymmetric power afforded by the advent of cyber as the... Show More
In The Australian Financial Review I argue that the equities market has embarked on a one-eyed, crazy-brave rally intoxicated by Trump tequila that ignores the risk of even more savage future discount rate increases given the remarkably low 4.6% US jobless rate and robust wages growth that is now on... Show More
What an eventful quarter we have seen in equity markets. The election of Donald Trump has seen a significant rise in long term bond yields and a rotation out of bond proxies like utilities, real estate and consumer staples into sectors like financials that have been undervalued for quite some... Show More
In The AFR I reflect on the puzzling conflicts between the equity and debt market reactions to the emergence of President-elect Donald Trump: stock-jockies have ignored higher future interest rates---and hence a higher opportunity cost of capital used to discount listed company cash-flows back to the present day---and are instead... Show More
Juliana Roadley speaks with Global Value Fund (GVF) Portfolio Manager, Miles Staude about the fund's performance, its discount capture strategy and the potential impact of Donald Trump’s surprise win Show More
Last month, we wrote: Show More
Ardea have been monitoring markets closely over the past 24 hours as you can imagine, and while the volatility has been significant, we think overall these events are favourable for markets and good for investors. Show More
In The Australian Financial Review I argue that it is misguided to conceive of He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named as irrational, a radical reformer, or a right-wing zealot—history suggests he is none of these things. While one can quibble with his ethics, morality, consistency and personal style, he is unambiguously the pure American profit... Show More
Steve Johnson from Forager Funds and Peter Hall from Hunter Hall Global Value (ASX:HHV) share their views on the prospect of investing in the Trump era. The discussion touches on the immediate implications for investors, how this political event could impact the outlook for interest rates and US stock valuations.... Show More
Irrespective of the initial market reaction, I do not think that the outcome of the US presidential election dictates how the markets will act in the long-term. There have been numerous studies which have shown that the presidential outcomes have limited impact on the performance of the US market and... Show More
It was a quiet week this week as Victorians enjoyed the Spring Racing Carnival. Next week promises to be anything but quiet with the much anticipated US presidential election. This time next week we'll be talking about either President-elect Trump or President-elect Clinton... A scary thought. In the meantime, Shane... Show More
