There is no fall in global oil demand as some reports have framed the reason for lower oil prices

John Robertson


There is no fall in global oil demand as some reports have framed the reason for lower oil prices. Monday's monthly OPEC market report put the current market size at 91.36 mb/d and rising by 1.17 mb/d in 2015, 0.22 mb/d more than growth in 2014. Today, the International Energy Agency (IEA) launched its latest medium term (2014-2020) oil market report. Like OPEC, the IEA expects prices to reflect movements in market balances. Critically, even small variations in either demand or supply can easily swing a conclusion about the trajectory of prices one way or the other making forecasting more than usually difficult and suggesting that imbalances may have been overstated in reaction to the dramatic fall in prices. Analytically, the most important of the IEA conclusions is that the changing structure of the international oil market sets the scene for a relatively swift recovery. The IEA expects global demand to grow faster than supply capacity. The IEA also expects political risk to remain extraordinarily elevated.

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John Robertson is Chief Investment Strategist for PortfolioDirect a provider of resource sector investment stock ratings and portfolio strategies for mining and oil and gas investors. He has worked as a policy economist, corporate business...


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