This $4.5 trillion buildout could reshape the next decade

Please note this interview was filmed Wednesday 17 March, 2026.

Global listed infrastructure is entering what could be its most consequential decade yet. After proving its resilience through a pandemic, inflation shock, war and supply chain disruption, the asset class is now facing something far bigger: a surge in demand that is structural, unavoidable and global in scale.

1. In my conversation with Sarah Shaw, Chief Investment Officer at 4D Infrastructure, what stood out was not just the size of the opportunity, but the inevitability of it. 

This is not just a thematic tailwind or a cyclical recovery. It is a buildout that must happen, underpinned by five powerful forces, from energy transition to AI-driven demand.

At the same time, the risks are shifting. Geopolitics is more complex, supply chains remain fragile, and the biggest question is no longer whether the demand exists, but whether the world can actually deliver.

“If we don't invest significantly in infrastructure over the coming decades, the world as we know it is going backwards socially, economically, and environmentally.”

That framing shifts infrastructure from a defensive allocation to something far more central. This is not just about income or stability. It is about owning the backbone of global growth at a time when the gap between what is needed and what is being built is widening. 

Interview summary

A bigger, more complex opportunity set

Over the past decade, the infrastructure investment universe has both expanded and matured. Shaw notes that what began as a thesis built on three structural drivers has now grown to five, reflecting a broader and more powerful set of demand tailwinds.

However, that expansion has come with greater complexity. 

“The geopolitical complexity of investing in the asset class has definitely increased, as well as the physical constraints of climate issues.” 

Sustainability is no longer a simple screening tool. It is now an integrated process balancing environmental targets with energy security, social outcomes and national priorities.

Despite these challenges, infrastructure has delivered. Through a decade of shocks, the asset class generated “an annualised return of over 10%,” supported by regulated returns, inflation-linked pricing and essential service demand. 

A multi-decade growth cycle where execution is the risk

Shaw is clear that infrastructure is entering a new phase of expansion. 

“Infrastructure at the moment is at the start of a huge growth investment cycle.” 

Describing what she sees as a very long-dated cycle driven by interconnected forces that must play out.

The key uncertainty is not demand, but execution. 

“What we are really paying our attention to is the speed of that execution and does it keep up with demand.”

That includes government policy, regulatory approvals, funding models and supply chain constraints. While recent geopolitical events have introduced short-term volatility, Shaw emphasises that “the fundamental growth cycle is not at risk.”

For investors, infrastructure’s global and diversified nature provides flexibility. Portfolios can be repositioned to navigate near-term risks while maintaining exposure to long-term structural growth.

Energy transition and AI are reshaping demand

Two forces have accelerated sharply in recent years: the energy transition and AI-driven digital infrastructure.

On the energy side, the scale is enormous. Global clean energy investment has risen from $1.5 trillion in 2022 to $2.2 trillion in 2025, and is expected to reach $3.5 trillion annually by 2030, rising further to $4.5 trillion by the mid-2040s.

Critically, “two thirds of that spend must happen in the emerging world,” where rising populations and expanding middle classes are driving demand.

At the same time, AI is creating a new layer of infrastructure intensity. Data centres require reliable baseload power and significant water resources.

“Electricity demand by data centres was about 460 terawatt hours in 2024… expected to be a thousand terawatt hours by 2030.”

This creates what Shaw describes as a “dual utility opportunity,” spanning both energy and water infrastructure. 

Emerging markets are central, but under-owned

One of Shaw’s strongest convictions is that investors are underexposed to emerging markets. With “85% of the global population” living in these regions, they are the primary drivers of population growth and middle-class expansion.

Yet global infrastructure portfolios remain heavily skewed toward North America and Europe.

“I think emerging market infrastructure is by far and away the best way to gain exposure to the emerging market story.”

Latin America stands out, particularly Brazil, where over 75% of electricity generation is already green due to hydro power. This combination of renewable baseload energy and water availability positions it well for future digital infrastructure demand.

Why the bond proxy label misses the point

Shaw is particularly critical of the persistent view of infrastructure as a bond proxy.

“By only linking it as a bond proxy, you're missing out on such a large part of the opportunity set.”

While interest rates matter given the capital intensity of the asset class, they are only one driver. Returns are shaped by capital investment cycles, demand growth, inflation-linked pricing and long-term structural thematics.

These include replacement of ageing infrastructure, population growth, middle-class expansion, energy transition and technological adoption.

As a result, Shaw argues infrastructure should be a permanent allocation, not a tactical one tied to falling rates or defensive positioning.

Grids and networks: the backbone of everything

Looking ahead, Shaw highlights two standout opportunities: emerging markets and regulated utility networks.

Grids and networks sit at the centre of all five structural thematics. They enable electrification, connect renewable generation to end users, and support rising demand from data centres and urbanisation.

“There’s no point in having a wind farm unless it’s connected to the end user.”

These assets offer regulated returns on capital invested, while being critical to enabling both economic development and technological progress. For Shaw, they sit at the centre of one of the most compelling long-term opportunities in global infrastructure.

Managed Fund

4D Global Infrastructure Fund (AUD Hedged)

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Managed Fund

4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged)

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