Thank you for the article and your perspective, I whole-heartedly (and perhaps begrudgingly) agree with your sentiment. I pulled some money out of markets towards the end of 2019 and I have been waiting patiently to re-deploy, I was thinking May-June may be a good time once the volatility settles though it's difficult watching the big rallies over the last week.
Preach, Jerome. 100% on point. The only people back in the market right now, on small volumes, are computer algorithms and Day Traders. And good luck to them.
Hi Jerome, you are rather bearish. I am wondering if this is reflective of a negative attitude to life more generally. I have to say having looked at the performance of your portfolio since inception it's grossly underperformed. Perhaps you need to reevaluate your outlook on life with a more positive stance and see the opportunity events such as this create.
Good article Jerome. Thanks for pulling together these ideas clearly. I think the current challenge is the government have to solve an ethically complex yet mathematically simple and elegant equation. To go back to work we need to determine both how we will restrict interactions, and a level of ongoing deaths society will tolerate. This is a grim choice, absent medical advances or favourable mutations but it will need to be made. I lay out the logic in greater detail in this post : bit.ly/TerribleEquation
Best finance article I have read so far on the unfolding crisis. Not heard of the writer or Procapital before, so no personal interest in saying this.
We need to test more and get the recovered and healthy back to work and normal life as quickly as possible - us older members of society can step back and look after ourselves sensibly. We can’t have this hiatus just to save the lives of a few sadly. More and more people are talking about this. I am particularly concerned about mental health - suicide and domestic violence - it’s not worth the cost to the economy and our well being.
This is by far the best article I have read regarding the situation the world finds itself in today. For far too long governments have have not been willing to bite the bullet and do the right but unpopular thing and have persisted with kicking the can down the road artificially holding down interest rates and creating money out of thin air. This has discouraged savings while encouraging asset bubbles in the stock markets and property as well as reckless consumer spending and malinvestment and debt. The chickens have finally come home to roost and the governments continue to throw printed money at the problem. Ain't gonna work!
Thank you for your comments. Tim, my bearishness or concern hasn't come from a natural inclination but rather from an in-depth examination of how badly mismanaged the global economies and markets are. Perhaps it is a consequence of what happens when leadership is poor and and malfeasance thrives. My natural inclination is towards curiosity and learning, which is what makes markets so interesting. In terms of performance, LAIF has delivered good returns as well as preserved capital in highly adverse markets since I was given the responsibility of portfolio manager on July 1st 2019 (performance was weaker before this with a different portfolio manager). We can see great potential to add even more value over the next few years.
Thank you, a really good article!
I definitely think there is a bigger dip to come. The lows will be re-tested.
Thanks for the great article Jerome. I share the same outlook as you about the market's short-to-medium term outlook however, as a long term investor - I am still taking up small positions (or adding to existing ones) on the stocks that I like along the way.
Australian views, for the most part, are too myopic, focusing on the effect to the Australian economy and not the World as a whole, to which we are inextricably connected. Many countries, especially the third world ones, are coming into the corona virus cycle much later than Australia and mostly unable to apply the social controls necessary contain the virus. So many international boarders will remain closed for quite some time to trade and human traffic. This will slow any growth in the world economy. Hemingway ...' No man is an island to himself etc'
Thanks for the good article, best article in this covid-19 so far I have read...
thanksExcellent review, and suitably balanced