Three reasons to own Downer EDI

James Miller

Firetrail Investments

Downer is an Australian listed business that specialises in urban infrastructure such as road, rail, utilities, social and economic services. They help design new infrastructure projects with engineers, build new projects with strategic partners and manage and service the infrastructure / facilities over time. These services are backed by long-term contracts (some lasting more than 20 years) typically with Government clients. It employs more people than the Commonwealth Bank, BHP or even Telstra. 

In our view, Downer is a compelling investment opportunity because of: 

1) The high quality nature of the business, 

2) An un-demanding valuation, and 

3) Some clear catalysts for a valuation re-rating.

We explore each of the three reasons to own Downer further below.

A high quality business

When you think of engineering it may conjure up visions of large fixed-price projects and cost blow-outs. In recent times, engineering firms have been doing it tough. RCR Tomlinson went bust, Lendlease lost hundreds of millions of dollars building infrastructure and many other large scale projects have been disasters.

Downer doesn’t do the mega, one-off, fixed-price projects. They specialise in low-risk, urbanisation projects. Think roads, rail, schools, stadiums, hospitals and power. It’s highly recurring and they have $43bn of work in hand, spanning up 30 years.

In our view, Downer will continue to grow over time driven by the twin tailwinds of:

  1. Population growth and urbanisation: Creating increased demand for urban infrastructure services; and
  2. Demand to outsource: Particularly from government, to companies like Downer who have the expertise to plan, build and service urban infrastructure projects often at a cheaper price and higher quality.

An un-demanding valuation

In the 2019 financial year, Downer is set to deliver strong earnings growth. The future years are likely to grow steadily in the high single-digit range, driven by continuing wins as well as operational improvements. The current share price of Downer puts it on a price to earnings (P/E) multiple below the market average, despite the robust growth outlook that is higher than the market. A compelling investment proposition!

In addition, Downer delivers a dividend yield above 4%, backed by high quality earnings and cash conversion of around 90% over the past 7-years.

Why is Downer undervalued in our view? One of the problems is that it has no peer listed in Australia. You need to travel to the UK to find companies who do similar things such a long-term facilities management. Companies like Compass and Serco are both trading on 20x P/E ratios vs Downer on around 15x P/E ratio today.

So how does the company trade at a higher multiple to generate capital growth for investors? We identify two key catalysts below.

Key catalysts for Downer’s valuation to re-rate

There are few things on the horizon for Downer:

  1. Reading the local financial press, Downer is rumoured to be selling their mining services division. It makes up around 13% of earnings but consumes almost 50% of Downer’s capital expenditure to generate those earnings. In our view, a sale of this business over the medium-term would move the company into a more capital light business model which is looked upon favourably by investors.
  2. Secondly, the company currently loses money on the Royal Adelaide Hospital contract. It’s a long term contract with limited downside (less than 2% of Downer’s market capitalisation). While not overly material, any positive outcome of a renegotiation of that contract in the medium-term would be better than the current situation and looked upon favourably by shareholders.

Conclusion: A high quality business with an un-demanding valuation

In our view, Downer is a compelling investment opportunity because of the quality of the business and exposure to urban services. In addition, the valuation for the business today is un-demanding with strong growth, good cashflow and some potential catalysts for a re-rate. For us, Downer ticks all the boxes.

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Firetrail Investments Pty Limited ABN 98 622 377 913 (‘Firetrail’), Corporate Authorised Representative (No. 1261372) of Pinnacle Investment Management Limited ABN 66 109 659 109 AFSL 322140. Any opinions or forecasts reflect the judgment and assumptions of Firetrail and its representatives on the basis of information at the date of publication and may later change without notice. Any projections contained in this article are estimates only and may not be realised in the future. The information is not intended as a securities recommendation or statement of opinion intended to influence a person or persons in making a decision in relation to investment. This communication is for general information only. It has been prepared without taking account of any person’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Any persons relying on this information should obtain professional advice relevant to their particular circumstances, needs and investment objectives. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Interests in the Firetrail Absolute Return Fund (ARSN 624 135 879) and Firetrail Australian High Conviction Fund (ARSN 624 136 045) (‘Funds’) are issued by Pinnacle Fund Services Limited ABN 29 082 494 362 AFSL 238371. Pinnacle Fund Services Limited is not licensed to provide financial product advice. A copy of the most recent Product Disclosure Statement (‘PDS’) of the Funds can be located at www.firetrailinvest.com You should consider the current PDS in its entirety and consult your financial adviser before making an investment decision. Pinnacle Fund Services Limited and Firetrail believe the information contained in this communication is reliable, however its accuracy, reliability or completeness is not guaranteed and persons relying on this information do so at their own risk. Subject to any liability which cannot be excluded under the relevant laws, Firetrail and Pinnacle Fund Services Limited disclaim all liability to any person relying on the information contained in this communication in respect of any loss or damage (including consequential loss or damage), however caused, which may be suffered or arise directly or indirectly in respect of such information.

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James Miller
Portfolio Manager
Firetrail Investments

James is a Portfolio Manager for the Firetrail High Conviction Fund and the Firetrail Absolute Return Fund. His primary sector responsibilities are Transport, Gaming, Infrastructure and Contractors. 12+ years’ experience investing in equity markets.

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