Brave call Marcus: "Chickens don’t make money..." Reminds me of the Monty Python Black Knight sketch: "King Arthur: Look, you stupid bastard, you've got no arms left! Black Knight: Yes I have. King Arthur: Look! Black Knight: Just a flesh wound. [Continues to kick and taunt Arthur] King Arthur: Stop that! Black Knight: Chicken! Chicken!"
Mr Stripes - As a ex-pat Pom I inevitably do have Monty Python in my DNA
Good Luck with this call Marcus and as always, thank you for your honest views. Much Appreciated.
So how and when will you know you are wrong? You mention if you are wrong you would sell, but then you would be selling when the market is 40 to 60% from peak. Wouldn't that be a good time to buy, so how could you ever possibly sell?
Good luck. I have two problems with the call: 1] Case numbers and deaths in the US are set to explode 2] The Third World has no ability to stop or even slow the virus which will run its course, that means, possibly, millions will die If that is the environment, we have yet to see the bottom. This is NOT the GFC and GFC tactics will not work
Big calls are generally more about self promotion rather than sound decision making, in my view.
Great info. One of the best you've wrote. All in with patience will pay handsome in 2 years. Thank you, Marcus.
Hi Jonathan - There is no song sheet we are singing to - we change our minds on a daily basis - it is the best you can do - wake up every morning and make decisions. I don't know when or if we will ever sell. One day it will come to us. I know financial product sellers and professional commentators tell you that you have to have a trading plan and pre-think every move - you can't. If you want to know when we sell if we ever do and why then please subscribe to Marcus Today - we publish our mindset and decisions daily.
I'd be very surprised if the Aussie and USA markets don't fall by 50%. Even if the disastrous economic effects are only temporary. The GFC was only temporary too, but the falls still happened. Lot of unemployment now.
I'm seriously surprised by the call. It looks like a FOMO call. You mention that you consider it a possibility that the banks may go bust (99% certainty they will be bailed out if this happened). That is how serious this is. It has come so fast that people haven't even had the chance to grasp what is happening. Shutting an economy down is easier than bringing it back to life. The way it looks now you'd be lucky to find a restaurant to have a meal at in 6 months. That is just because they won't exist anymore. There is no play in the book for what will happen in real life in the next 6-24 months regardless of how much government intervention there is. A lot of people think that this virus will pass quickly. The reality is that it is unlike any before. It is suspected of being able to stay active on surfaces for 17 days or more. Getting rid of this will not be easy. There is hope in the markets that stimulus will save us at this point. Companies are going to go under because of this. This has not even started yet. I think this is a very early call. Even health related private businesses are entering survival mode. This is not even something that had likely not even happened in the GFC. Capital preservation should be all important at this time. One can come back from 30% loss a lot easier than a 70% loss. Missing the bounce here does not matter as markets will not snap back immediately to their previous highs. There will be more opportunities later when the risk is lower.
Hi Marcus, It's hard remain patient in this market and not be overrun with emotions. "This chickens missing a few feathers" :) However I'm going to continue buying more of my best picks and will gradually add to these postions over the coming months. I prefer to be consistent with my approch and dollar cost average back in, especially now that stocks are so cheap. Maybe they'll get cheaper maybe they wont? but I know that I've given it my best shot to capture the bottom.
More right than wrong Marcus.
Peak covid and fear - probably a good time to go mostly in before peak FOMO kicks in - your history of making calls on the market prove you know your stuff.. thanks for the update Marcus
Monty Python DNA might come in handy Marcus. Economic fall-out barely visible earnings-wise atm, PEs revised to 10x a possibility. Though the Black Knight would probably regard further 20% drop from Monday's lows as a mere 'flesh wound'.
Go Marcus. I like your approach "...wake up every morning and make decisions". Kicking goals each day since.
I like the thinking that Marcus has shared here. I think this crash is a lot like 1987, only in about half the time. Everything does move faster today, given the technologies we now have. Like 1987, we may have seen a panic leading to stock prices being pushed down excessively, only to settle somewhat higher and to enter a slow recovery. I too could be way wrong, but that's how I'm reading it for now and have been buying, but not hastily.
Thanks Marcus great post. Judging by the comments here we re definitely at or very near the bottom.
An all in call but with plenty of caveats. My concern is an explosion in US cases and deaths but with no offsetting trillion dollar announcements in coming weeks. FOMO is high of course, but that is a risk I'm willing to take at this stage.
BTW, Wuhan is still in lockdown, FYI Marcus. From January 23 to April 8.
Like millions of other Australians, I really hope you are are correct Marcus
no chickens only lay eggs! been eating a lot of thoes lately
Plenty of caveats Justin - there are many unpredictable twists and turns left and I don't rule out an article that says "All out"!
Can you really say that you are making a fully unemotional decision to go back 'all in'? I think if you considered your decision objectively you would identify an urgency and drive that has its roots in emotion. We have always been taught to make decisions with the head and not with the heart, as investors.
Thanks Marcus, I appreciate the balance in your commentary and that it is not the typical backwards facing fence-sitting which has become commonplace. For sure there is going to be massive hardship, but when the crisis ends as it inevitably will, business will restart, restaurants will re-open and travel will resume.
Don't start on Monty Python .We could be here all day mate !
Reply to ROBERT G 26th March. I totally agree
Most commentators discuss saving the economy by way of increased bank lending liquidity and government fiscal packages to support the community which raises the question of how we eventually pay for these costs in the future, ie increased taxes, reduced welfare payments etc. If the community loses confidence in these methods, this will quickly lead to depression and runaway inflation (think 1920s Germany), so as financial commentators, please stress the most important issue of preserving community confidence in these dreadful times more than anything else. bryan mcmahon
Hi Marcus . Thanks for the honesty in your writings . I F the recent lows are considered to be a bottom , l shall wait for a ~ 50 % retracement from prices current on Friday the 9 th before dipping my toe into my favourite stocks at ~ 25 % of my more normal allocation of cash per stock " JUST - in - CASE " . Best wishes , Ramon .