Top 10 reasons why you should get back in the market (1) Market pullback has reached our S&P 300 pullback target level of 5400 (2) China has moved to stimulate while Europe is expected to (3) US Fed more likely to maintain interest rate outlook (4) UK/Scotland split gets a no vote (5) Currency recovering and expected to hold above 90 cents on interest rate differential (6) Australian volatility index to pullback after reaching historical high levels on multiple layers of geopolitical and macro risks (7) Companies with global business models to get a higher valuation premium (8) Lack of marginal growth improvement and rising yield will drive market towards GARY (Growth At Reasonable Yield) stocks (9) Industry consolidations and M&A will get pushed through with margin pressures and rising cost of debt (10) We remain positive long term with short term risks priced in
The market is trying grapple with the move from yield to growth when there is very little growth. I don't think they are mutually exclusive. You can have good quality stocks on relatively good value with good growth and yield outlook. Once the FOMC short term risk is out of the way, market will start to trend up again. Institutional investors will be taking time off with school holidays next week while retail investors will have a bigger say. I expect we will see majority of the big caps to turn positive by the end of the week.
There are some conflicting technical views appearing on Livewire right now... (see the QMG post today). Are your Quant indicators telling a diiferent story?