Trending On Livewire: Weekend Edition - Saturday 26th July
After a record-breaking week last week, the ASX 200 took a breather this week with the index down around 1%. Nothing to panic about but there are some interesting dynamics taking place.
We’ve seen money rotate out of CBA and the banks, into miners. In the US, companies that miss earnings are getting punished more severely than at any time since 2022 – perhaps a sign of what’s to come during the upcoming local reporting season.
Of course, both dynamics could mean little in the grand scheme of things, but they could also be symptoms of a skittish market that knows it has run too hard and simply won’t be able to justify some of the nosebleed valuations we’re seeing.
Time will tell, as always, but there’s no better time for market participants than during and just after earnings season. It’s the period where we have the most up-to-date information possible, and the clearest insights into the health – or otherwise - of the companies in our portfolios, and corporate Australia more broadly.
With the season kicking off next week and building steadily over August, we will be bringing you extensive coverage, including earnings analysis with prominent fund managers, C-Suite interviews, and news coverage via Market Index.
We look forward to bringing it to you. Have a great weekend.
Chris Conway, Managing Editor, Livewire Markets
Meet Steven: Hunting for great companies using data and peer-led wisdom

When Steven Mabb sold his shoe business in 2017, he got serious about investing. His approach blends the experience and insights of a business owner with the collective wisdom of an investor hive mind, tapping into communities like Teaminvest and the Australian Shareholders Association to cut through noise, test ideas, and refine his process. He seeks out founder-led businesses with strong cultures, solid growth, and aligned incentives - then waits patiently for the right price.
This SMSF investor isn’t chasing the ASX – he’s looking for global edge

With investors returning to risk assets, it's easy to overlook the appeal of defensive plays like global listed infrastructure. Sarah Lau from Resolution Capital argues that the asset class is now particularly attractive, trading at a 16% discount to global equities (EV/EBITDA) while delivering comparable returns with less volatility. Infrastructure earnings are forecast to grow 8–9% annually over the next three years, driven by powerful themes like energy transition, energy security, and digitisation. I sat down with Lau to understand where she is seeing value around the world. For good measure, she also shares a couple of global companies she likes.
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Chart of the Week: Can CBA continue to grow? The JPMorgan parallel

Commonwealth Bank of Australia continues to perplex investors. It has a growth-stock P/E (~30x), a sub-3% dividend yield and a 12% ASX 200 weighting. Its recent $300 billion market cap was an Australian first, raising questions about further growth. However, the U.S. experience offers a compelling theory about the future. JPMorgan Chase, America's "CBA," surged past US$800 billion when CBA hit its milestone. JPM is now worth more than its three main U.S. rivals combined. While we’re not predicting that CBA will be the size of ANZ, Westpac, NAB and Macquarie combined, the "big only get bigger" adage holds true. In a market driven by passive investing, the largest stocks attract the most inflows, suggesting CBA's growth story might not be over.
Vishal Teckchandani, Senior Editor, Livewire Markets
Weekly Poll
To what extent do you believe passive investing is behind the relentless rise of the CBA share price?
a) A major factor, ensuring continued strong inflows
b) A contributing factor, but fundamentals will eventually dictate performance
c) Minor impact; passive investing's influence is overstated
d) Negative impact, as concentration risks become apparent
LAST WEEKS POLL RESULTS
We asked "Do you believe the recent PE expansion on the ASX is justified by improving global liquidity and growth expectations?"
The poll shows 41% said no, this feels like irrational exuberance, 37% said partly but valuations look stretched, 16% were unsure, and 6% said yes, Macro Velocity explains it perfectly.
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