Underground geopolitics: The battle for Africa’s mineral wealth

What’s going down in the Deep Heart of Africa? And why does it matter for investors?

Recently, I published a report for my investment advisory detailing America’s pivot into Africa’s Central African Copper Belt, where I worked as an exploration geologist back in 2010.

As I write this, the US is working with a group of small African nations to revamp an old, disused railway line... It’s known as the Lobito Railway Corridor.

It is part of an interesting shift by the US to pivot and gain access to Africa’s vast mineral wealth.

Specifically, the Central African Copper Belt.

This geological anomaly runs through Zambia and the DRC, approximately across the middle of the African continent. For decades, it has been an important source of global copper supply.

These mines are located in the middle of Africa. They are remote, undeveloped, and contain virtually zero infrastructure. I know, I worked there as a geologist for three and a half years.

The abandoned Lobito railway line provides the critical link, where valuable ore can be transported from mines in the middle of the continent to ports in Angola, Africa’s West Coast. 

But it won’t just be Angola....

 I suspect the US is cosying up to several countries along the continent’s Western Coast as it attempts to double down on its strategy of securing Africa’s mineral wealth.

Recently, Trump invited three leaders of tiny, unknown countries in West Africa… Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania and Senegal.

These five countries have an insignificant GDP of around $75 billion.

However, the leaders of these five countries were just given a special one-on-one invitation to meet with US President Donald Trump earlier this year.

This privilege has not been extended to many of the world’s major economies, including long-term US allies like Australia (until recently).

The leaders were personally invited to attend the White House for a one-on-one meeting with President Donald Trump.

So, what could this mean? 

It’s probable that the White House views West Africa as an essential link in its critical mineral future… And it all comes down to geography. Check it out:

The US has a clear geographical advantage in securing partnerships along Africa’s West Coast.

Why? Africa’s west coast offers DIRECT shipping access to raw materials.

This could become critically important in the event of significant global supply chain disruptions.

You could liken it to a ‘last resort’ strategy in the event of global war or some other catastrophic event that disrupts global trade.

Because no matter what happens to the rest of the world, the US should be able to ‘contain’ the waters within its own neighbourhood, the Atlantic Ocean.

That would mean continual safe access to Africa’s vast mineral wealth.

Again, this is why America is extending personal invitations to unknown leaders in West Africa and forming new and vital allies.

Meanwhile, billions are being invested in upgrading the continent’s decrepit railway lines.

Pay close attention to what happens here over the coming months… America could be laying the foundation for its future mineral security.

Let’s hope it doesn’t ever need to use this ‘last resort’ measure, but it is worth watching.

The flashpoint 

But US isn’t the only major economy vying for control over the Central African Copper Belt.

A similar ‘railway rebuild’ strategy is playing out on the other side of the continent, which could kink America’s supply chain strategy. One that could become a major point of disruption between the world’s two superpowers.

You see, China is also embarking on its own railway development: revamping the Tazara Railway, which runs from Zambia to Tanzania... Specifically, to Africa’s East Coast.

It serves as a geopolitical flash point: two major railway development projects each vying for the same thing... 

One superpower is looking to move copper to ports on the East Coast for shipping across the Indian Ocean to China.

The other superpower is looking to shift ore to Africa’s West coast and then onto the US.

And Africa’s copper mines sit directly in the middle:

And remarkably, no one’s paying attention!

For the better part of two decades, China has held a dominating presence in Zambia and the DRC, the two countries that host the Central African Copper Belt.

Building mines and developing infrastructure to secure their presence in this critical region.

However, the US appears to be turning the dial on China’s dominating role in the area. Like this recent example:

The Kitwe Mine Disaster

In February 2025, a major tailings breach occurred at a copper mine operated by Sino-Metals.

Sino-Metals is a Chinese state-owned firm.

The breach occurred near a town called Kitwe in the heart of the African copper belt, in Zambia. It has operated mines in the region for years, including when I worked as a geologist in Zambia from 2010 to 2014.

The mine failure released heavy metals like arsenic into the surrounding farmland and waterways, killing fish and poisoning agricultural land.

Clearly, the US used this accident to its advantage, sowing the seeds of distrust among locals to try to pit them against Chinese interests.

Earlier this month, the US embassy in Zambia warned that the disaster was far worse than either Sino-Metals or the Zambian government had first reported.

They claimed that the volume of toxic sludge released may have been up to 30 times higher than official estimates. In response, the US embassy issued an evacuation order to remove its staff from the area and issued a travel warning for US citizens.

Clearly, they were looking to generate public angst. And incite negative sentiment against the state-owned Chinese operator and perhaps Chinese operators more broadly. 

Authorities in China have hit back with their own statements disputing the US embassy’s claims.

Why Events like this are worth paying attention to

For years, I’ve outlined to my readers the critical role minerals will play in geopolitics.

Years of underinvestment in new supply, which I’ve seen directly as an exploration geologist, place severe pressure on the limited supply.

And there’s no better example of this emerging pressure point than what’s happening in the heart of Africa: the Central African Copper Belt.

Observe these events carefully. I suspect we are still in the early stages of observing the consequences of underdevelopment in finite resources like copper.   

And what countries will do to secure access. 

Clearly, China and the US view the Central African Copper Belt as a critical source of future supply for this vital commodity. And as far as these two geopolitical superpowers are concerned, Africa remains up for grabs.

You can access James’ full research and portfolio here for the latest insights and stock recommendations on capitalising on these trends.