Inflation in the US is almost certainly going to surprise to the upside. Reach out to any one of your friends, family or colleagues in the US and ask them if prices are going up. The signs of big discount chains such as Walmart raising their minimum wages as well as the healthy job market suggests to me that the US is in an inflationary environment. Additionally 2016 will not be subdued by the big sell-off in oil prices, which had a substantial deflationary effect.