inflation

A group of factors that supported the equity bull market for almost a decade, including excess liquidity, low volatility, and low rates, are now unwinding in a synchronised fashion. Show More

The recent uptick in global market volatility has been driven by fears about price pressures and inflation. My colleague, investment director Andy Budden, answers questions about the inflation outlook and reflects on its implications for different asset classes. Show More

The ‘balanced’ portfolio has become an institution in the financial world. Equities and bonds are the main ingredients and the ‘mix’ determines the categories of balanced funds commonly used. Here we discuss this approach, and look at another option. Show More

In this report, we have isolated two of the leading indicators in Australia’s economy, namely building approvals and money growth, and highlighted some key themes arising from our findings. Our analysis is independent and takes account of evidence through liaison with industry contacts, combined with data. Show More

In our first monthly letter for the year, we highlighted that 2018 was unlikely to be a ‘set and forget’ year for investment strategy. As we approach the second half of 2018, macro uncertainty and cascading geo-political risks continue to impact markets and seem likely to befriend us for the... Show More

It started out as a whisper in early 2017, but by early 2018, it had reached a roar: “inflation is coming,” they yelled. After a decade mired in sub-par growth and near-zero interest rates, consensus agreed things were returning to normal. Portfolios repositioned, and rate-sensitive stocks repriced. But nearly six... Show More

Over the past 18 months, the term ‘Goldilocks’ has increasingly been used to describe the global economic climate – neither too ‘hot’ to cause rampant inflation, nor too ‘cold’ to fall into recession. In such an environment, interest rates can remain low. This happy set of circumstances has been positive... Show More

While the global economy delivers on growth, the signs are there from the US regarding the pressure of inflation as the Fed raises rates, coupled with indications of wage pickup across the world. The RBA remains in a holding pattern on rates, and won’t move until the unemployment rate drops... Show More

September 27th, 1983. What comes to mind? What if I include the quote from Bob Hawke? “Any boss who sacks a worker for not turning up today is a bum”. If you are over 45, you will know straight away. It was the day the yacht Australia II won the... Show More

The US economic expansion has just become the second longest on record. If it continues beyond mid-2019, it will be number one. Its longevity is probably due to a mixture of circumstances, judgement and luck. The severity of the recession following the global financial crisis (GFC), coupled with the slowness... Show More

This week it's wage inflation, but with a particular twist. Utilizing the great indicators from the innovative economics team at the Atlanta Fed, I have built a new indicator which I call the "Stay or Go Indicator". It is the difference between the annual wage growth figures for 'Job Switchers'... Show More

On the back of the worst March quarter since 2008, indicators show the end of the current cycle is in sight. Trump’s jostle with China is more of a concern than his ‘war of Tweets’ with North Korea, and coupled with the inability of investors to rely on central bank... Show More

Over the past month our leading indicators of the industrial cycle have shown signs of peaking. The real question is whether this suggests the industrial cycle is merely temporarily interrupted and rapid global growth will soon return; whether we are through the fastest phase of acceleration in the cycle, and... Show More

Recent weeks have seen global growth continue to push ahead in a robust and synchronised fashion. Similarly, and much as hoped, wage and inflation data have stepped back from their early-year acceleration, supporting our call that rising inflation pressures should come through only gradually. But in the words of Lord... Show More

There are two attitudes you can take to the February 2018 “flash crash”. The first, and overwhelmingly the most popular, is that this was a technically driven correction in the markets, exacerbated by carry monkeys such as the short-VIX crowd, and that the pause since then has provided a refresh... Show More

...Or that is what some equity pundits masquerading as bond experts want you to believe. They predict that a ‘bondcano’ of rising interest rates will lead to collapsing prices for bonds and bond-like proxies. Show More

Most investors and economists accept that interest rates around the world have bottomed and are heading up. This matters not just for macro-traders, but will affect all investors and all asset classes. As interest rates go up, so does the cost of holding cash, which is fundamental to the value... Show More

A couple of weeks ago, I suggested that 2018 would be the year in which we waved goodbye to Goldilocks. By that, I meant that the unusually favourable conditions investors enjoyed in 2017 - solid growth, lower for longer interest rates, subdued inflation and a lack of volatility - could... Show More

In Australia, the outlook remains mixed, labour market and confidence metrics have remained solid early in the year and this is expected to continue. Yet other activity indicators continue to suggest a more modest pick up in growth may be expected with limited price pressures. Show More

This time last year we wrote on Livewire that inflation and volatility charts were the ones we were watching most closely. Following the recent surge in both measures, Livewire got in touch to ask what we expect from here, and what investors can do about it. Show More