In part one of this deep-dive, we analysed the economic impact a demographic headwind can have using Japan as a case in point. In part two, we looked at how an ageing population can impact government debt. To conclude this series, we discuss the impact demographics may have on inflation,... Show More
In part one of this deep-dive, we analysed the economic impact a demographic headwind can have using Japan as a case in point. In part two, we look at how an ageing population can impact government debt. Show More
In 2011 a dramatic shift occurred throughout the developed world — working-age populations began a multi-decade decline. Demographic shifts in an economy like this can have profound effects on economic factors, leading to changes in growth and debt metrics. This three-part series explores: Show More
East Coast residential property continues to soften as credit tightens, but in this interview with Charlie Jamieson, CIO at Jamieson Coote Bonds, he warns that property investors might make matters worse by becoming forced sellers in a falling market. Show More
2018 was another eventful year for markets around the world, but what lies in store for the next 12 months for investors? Andrew Milligan, Head of Global Strategy, outlines Aberdeen Standard Investments’ 2019 global markets outlook. Here are five key takeaways. Show More
A group of factors that supported the equity bull market for almost a decade, including excess liquidity, low volatility, and low rates, are now unwinding in a synchronised fashion. Show More
The recent uptick in global market volatility has been driven by fears about price pressures and inflation. My colleague, investment director Andy Budden, answers questions about the inflation outlook and reflects on its implications for different asset classes. Show More
The ‘balanced’ portfolio has become an institution in the financial world. Equities and bonds are the main ingredients and the ‘mix’ determines the categories of balanced funds commonly used. Here we discuss this approach, and look at another option. Show More
In this report, we have isolated two of the leading indicators in Australia’s economy, namely building approvals and money growth, and highlighted some key themes arising from our findings. Our analysis is independent and takes account of evidence through liaison with industry contacts, combined with data. Show More
In our first monthly letter for the year, we highlighted that 2018 was unlikely to be a ‘set and forget’ year for investment strategy. As we approach the second half of 2018, macro uncertainty and cascading geo-political risks continue to impact markets and seem likely to befriend us for the... Show More
It started out as a whisper in early 2017, but by early 2018, it had reached a roar: “inflation is coming,” they yelled. After a decade mired in sub-par growth and near-zero interest rates, consensus agreed things were returning to normal. Portfolios repositioned, and rate-sensitive stocks repriced. But nearly six... Show More
Over the past 18 months, the term ‘Goldilocks’ has increasingly been used to describe the global economic climate – neither too ‘hot’ to cause rampant inflation, nor too ‘cold’ to fall into recession. In such an environment, interest rates can remain low. This happy set of circumstances has been positive... Show More
While the global economy delivers on growth, the signs are there from the US regarding the pressure of inflation as the Fed raises rates, coupled with indications of wage pickup across the world. The RBA remains in a holding pattern on rates, and won’t move until the unemployment rate drops... Show More
September 27th, 1983. What comes to mind? What if I include the quote from Bob Hawke? “Any boss who sacks a worker for not turning up today is a bum”. If you are over 45, you will know straight away. It was the day the yacht Australia II won the... Show More
The US economic expansion has just become the second longest on record. If it continues beyond mid-2019, it will be number one. Its longevity is probably due to a mixture of circumstances, judgement and luck. The severity of the recession following the global financial crisis (GFC), coupled with the slowness... Show More
This week it's wage inflation, but with a particular twist. Utilizing the great indicators from the innovative economics team at the Atlanta Fed, I have built a new indicator which I call the "Stay or Go Indicator". It is the difference between the annual wage growth figures for 'Job Switchers'... Show More
On the back of the worst March quarter since 2008, indicators show the end of the current cycle is in sight. Trump’s jostle with China is more of a concern than his ‘war of Tweets’ with North Korea, and coupled with the inability of investors to rely on central bank... Show More
Over the past month our leading indicators of the industrial cycle have shown signs of peaking. The real question is whether this suggests the industrial cycle is merely temporarily interrupted and rapid global growth will soon return; whether we are through the fastest phase of acceleration in the cycle, and... Show More
Recent weeks have seen global growth continue to push ahead in a robust and synchronised fashion. Similarly, and much as hoped, wage and inflation data have stepped back from their early-year acceleration, supporting our call that rising inflation pressures should come through only gradually. But in the words of Lord... Show More
There are two attitudes you can take to the February 2018 “flash crash”. The first, and overwhelmingly the most popular, is that this was a technically driven correction in the markets, exacerbated by carry monkeys such as the short-VIX crowd, and that the pause since then has provided a refresh... Show More
