inflation

You better run, you better take cover

Brett Gillespie

September 27th, 1983. What comes to mind? What if I include the quote from Bob Hawke? “Any boss who sacks a worker for not turning up today is a bum”. If you are over 45, you will know straight away. It was the day the yacht Australia II won the... Show More

What causes recessions, and can we predict them?

Aberdeen Standard Investments

The US economic expansion has just become the second longest on record. If it continues beyond mid-2019, it will be number one. Its longevity is probably due to a mixture of circumstances, judgement and luck. The severity of the recession following the global financial crisis (GFC), coupled with the slowness... Show More

inflation interest rates gfc recession

Chart Of The Week: Stay or Go? US Wage Growth is on the Rise...

Callum Thomas

This week it's wage inflation, but with a particular twist. Utilizing the great indicators from the innovative economics team at the Atlanta Fed, I have built a new indicator which I call the "Stay or Go Indicator". It is the difference between the annual wage growth figures for 'Job Switchers'... Show More

economy fed inflation monetary policy wage growth wage inflation

Investors must tread carefully

Simon Doyle

On the back of the worst March quarter since 2008, indicators show the end of the current cycle is in sight. Trump’s jostle with China is more of a concern than his ‘war of Tweets’ with North Korea, and coupled with the inability of investors to rely on central bank... Show More

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Navigating a peak in the global growth cycle

Tim Toohey

Over the past month our leading indicators of the industrial cycle have shown signs of peaking. The real question is whether this suggests the industrial cycle is merely temporarily interrupted and rapid global growth will soon return; whether we are through the fastest phase of acceleration in the cycle, and... Show More

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Looking to alternatives in a rising rate environment

Scott Haslem

Recent weeks have seen global growth continue to push ahead in a robust and synchronised fashion. Similarly, and much as hoped, wage and inflation data have stepped back from their early-year acceleration, supporting our call that rising inflation pressures should come through only gradually. But in the words of Lord... Show More

Was January 26 the cycle peak?

Vimal Gor

There are two attitudes you can take to the February 2018 “flash crash”. The first, and overwhelmingly the most popular, is that this was a technically driven correction in the markets, exacerbated by carry monkeys such as the short-VIX crowd, and that the pause since then has provided a refresh... Show More

inflation volatility rates

Run for the hills... interest rates are exploding!

Jason Teh

...Or that is what some equity pundits masquerading as bond experts want you to believe. They predict that a ‘bondcano’ of rising interest rates will lead to collapsing prices for bonds and bond-like proxies. Show More

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The Rules of Investing: Investing in a world of rising rates

Livewire Exclusive

Most investors and economists accept that interest rates around the world have bottomed and are heading up. This matters not just for macro-traders, but will affect all investors and all asset classes. As interest rates go up, so does the cost of holding cash, which is fundamental to the value... Show More

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Goldilocks has packed her bags

Tom Stevenson

A couple of weeks ago, I suggested that 2018 would be the year in which we waved goodbye to Goldilocks. By that, I meant that the unusually favourable conditions investors enjoyed in 2017 - solid growth, lower for longer interest rates, subdued inflation and a lack of volatility - could... Show More

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Australia: Good... but not great

Alex Joiner

In Australia, the outlook remains mixed, labour market and confidence metrics have remained solid early in the year and this is expected to continue. Yet other activity indicators continue to suggest a more modest pick up in growth may be expected with limited price pressures. Show More

inflation growth rates macro

More trouble on the way?

Tamar Hamlyn

This time last year we wrote on Livewire that inflation and volatility charts were the ones we were watching most closely. Following the recent surge in both measures, Livewire got in touch to ask what we expect from here, and what investors can do about it. Show More

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Running to Stand Still

Etienne Alexiou

On the 9th March 1987 U2 released the Joshua Tree, the fastest selling British Album of all time that went on to sell over 25 million copies. Joshua Tree is still acclaimed as one of the greatest albums of all time. Interestingly Bono considered pulling the album prior to its... Show More

It's right to worry about US inflation

Simon Doyle

Although much of the focus remains on the February market activity, a tipping point between unemployment and inflation in the US approaches and so inflation remains a key risk. February revealed the first cracks in the relative market stability of the last year, as higher inflation fears both drove bond... Show More

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New era for central banks

Elizabeth Moran

FIIG Securities guest economist, Saul Eslake looks at the current global shift by central banks in ‘advanced’ economies to increase inflation, rather than keep it down as seen in the past decade. He also details why tax cuts and Trump tariffs are likely to put the US under inflationary pressure... Show More

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Another way to play Sydney Airport

Elizabeth Moran

Attention Sydney Airport bondholders, with the 2030s selling at a premium, it may be time to switch to the 2020 inflation-linked bond for great relative value. You don't have to hold bonds to maturity, investors prepared to trade can earn higher returns. This note tells the story. Show More

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A paradigm shift for global markets

Livewire Exclusive

In recent years, markets have reacted positively to signs of inflation. Inflation has been indicative of improving conditions in the economy, and central banks have been encouraging it through artificially low rates and quantitative easing. Gopi Karunakaran, Portfolio Manager at Ardea Investment Management, says this is all changing in 2018. Show More

Falling house prices and other problems

Elizabeth Moran

FIIG Securities guest contributor, Stephen Koukoulas says for more than two years, the annual underlying inflation rate has been between 1.6 and 1.9 per cent, locked below the RBA 2 to 3 per cent target. Here he talks about what this means, and takes a look at the data on... Show More

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What to expect from a combination of US tax cuts and Fed tightening

Peter Wilmshurst

2017 saw a combination of solid economic growth without a significant pick-up in inflation. This let the Fed continue to raise rates, but at a measured pace, and it has flagged it’s likely to raise rates another three times this year. Other major central banks did not follow this path... Show More

The five charts the experts are watching right now

Livewire Exclusive

Bond markets recently slapped equity investors in the face with a 50-basis point reminder of who is really in charge here. As the famous quote from James Carville goes: “I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or... Show More