US-Iran sabre rattling boosts Woodside Energy and Santos share prices - but how high can they go?

With respect to WDS’s technical analysis factors, I note:

• The short term trend is up, the long term trend is down
• The short term uptrend ribbon is acting as a zone of dynamic demand, but the long term downtrend ribbon has acted as a reliable zone of dynamic supply – WDS is presently trading in the long term trend ribbon
• The price action is rising peaks and rising troughs
• The candles are predominantly demand-side in nature in the short term, but predominantly supply-side in nature in the long term

The WDS technicals imply a neutral trend bias as the strong short term uptrend is counterbalanced by the well-established long term downtrend. If the price can trade above the long term trend ribbon and then demonstrate that it’s no longer acting as a zone of dynamic supply, but is rather as a zone of dynamic demand – then WDS would have ended its long term downtrend and could potentially be commencing a new long term uptrend.

As long as the WDS price does not close below the short term uptrend ribbon, the current short term uptrend remains intact and has a decent chance of transitioning the long term trend to at least neutral. Continued strong price action and candles will improve the likelihood of a subsequent transition to up.

Alternatively, a close below the short term trend ribbon would likely indicate a continuation of the prevailing long term downtrend. (Conclusion: From a technical perspective it’s make or break time for WDS!)

Broker Consensus

To obtain a Broker Consensus Rating, we assign a Rating Value of +1 to any broker rating better than HOLD/NEUTRAL/MARKETWEIGHT; a Rating Value of 0 for any broker rating equivalent to HOLD/NEUTRAL/MARKETWEIGHT; and a Rating Value of -1 to any broker rating worse than HOLD/NEUTRAL/MARKETWEIGHT.

We then take the average of all Rating Values and assign a Broker Consensus Rating of BUY to values +0.5 or above; a Broker Consensus Rating of HOLD for values between -0.5 and +0.5; and a Broker Consensus Rating of SELL for values -0.5 or below.

The Broker Consensus Target is simply the average of the target prices we have on file for each broker. Typically, brokers define their target price as a 12-month forecast, and each target price is based on a broker’s fundamental valuation assumptions. We have only assessed broker ratings and target prices within the last 3 months to account for recent relevance.

WDS’s average Rating Value is +0.50, resulting in a Broker Consensus Rating of BUY. WDS’s Broker Consensus Target is $25.45, this suggests brokers collectively believe the stock is around 8.2% undervalued based upon a last price of $23.52.

Santos (STO) – Quick Take

Key factors driving STO's 12–18-month underperformance

• Narrower production base: Heavier dependence on domestic gas contracts, less leverage to global oil price upside.
• Barossa controversy: Environmental and regulatory setbacks delaying the high-profile Barossa gas project.
• M&A fatigue: Investor unease with Santos’ attempted merger activity, notably the failed Oil Search combination and speculation over further consolidation.

Earnings Trends

Technical Analysis

With respect to STO’s technical analysis factors, I note:

• The short term trend is up, the long term trend is neutral
• The short term uptrend ribbon is acting as a zone of dynamic demand, but the long term downtrend ribbon has acted as a reliable zone of dynamic supply – on a positive note, though STO is trading above the long term trend ribbon today for the first time since 20-Jan
• The price action is rising peaks and rising troughs
• The candles are predominantly demand-side in nature in the short term, but mixed in nature in the long term

The STO technicals imply a neutral-but-improving trend bias as the strong short term uptrend is counterbalanced by the neutral long term trend. If the price can continue to trade above the long term trend ribbon and then demonstrate that it’s no longer acting as a zone of dynamic supply, but is rather as a zone of dynamic demand – then STO would have ended its long term downtrend and will be commencing a new long term uptrend.

As long as the STO price does not close below the short term uptrend ribbon, the current short term uptrend remains intact and has a decent chance of transitioning the long term trend to up. Continued strong price action and candles will improve the likelihood of this transition.

Alternatively, a close below the short term trend ribbon would likely indicate a resumption of the prior long term downtrend. (Conclusion: From a technical perspective it’s make or break time for STO too!)

Broker Consensus

STO’s average Rating Value is +0.88, resulting in a Broker Consensus Rating of BUY. STO’s Broker Consensus Target is $7.47, this suggests brokers collectively believe the stock is around 11.5% undervalued based upon a last price of $6.70.

Conclusion – What to watch

Looking ahead, market attention will focus tightly on Thursday’s deadline and any signs of US or Iranian escalation. The situation is dynamic, and so too is the oil price. History shows that during periods of conflict, Brent crude can spike dramatically:

• Approx. 20% following the 2019 attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq facility
• Over 25% during the lead-up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq
• Over 40% at the onset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022

With geopolitical risk premia building once again, oil remains the market’s most sensitive barometer of global instability. If we do get another flare up in the Middle East, then both WDS and STO could be set to extend their recent recovery.

Want more information on the terms used in Carl's technical analysis? Then check out his Technical analysis for beginners: ChartWatch Primer.

This article first appeared on Market Index on 12 June 2025.