US jobless rates the real key to Australian rate movements
US jobless rates the real key to Australian rate movements. The Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to be in any position to start hiking official interest rates until the US Federal Reserve does the same, which won't be until the middle of next year. HSBC chief US economist Kevin Logan said speculation that the Fed would move sooner to normalise its ultra-stimulatory monetary policy as a head fake and that Janet Yellen would move cautiously - perhaps even more than they themselves have indicated. Logan said the main trigger for US rate increases would be when the US's jobless rate falls below 5.5 per cent. It dropped to 5.9 per cent in September from 6.1 per cent in August. He indicated the RBA should focus on effectively keeping rates low to maintain downward pressure on the Australian dollar and spur demand. They have to focus on that target and not respond to other sectors such as housing. Full article in AFR: (VIEW LINK)
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