Volatility before opportunity
Market weakness may create opportunities to add risk ahead of a potential rally later in Q4 2026.
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Bond yields, persistent inflation and renewed central-bank tightening are creating a challenging backdrop for global markets. In Australia, falling house prices, softer consumer spending and slowing growth add another layer of risk.
In this latest market outlook, we examine whether rising bond yields reflect a higher-for-longer rate environment or deeper concerns about fiscal sustainability. We discuss Australian equities’ sensitivity to higher yields, the case for a further RBA rate rise, and how housing weakness could lead to a sharper consumer slowdown.
While near-term volatility is likely to persist, market weakness may create opportunities to add risk ahead of a potential rally later in Q4 2026.
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Tim works closely with the investment team, advising on both the outlook for financial markets and asset allocation.
Prior to joining Yarra Capital Management, Tim was Chief Economist of Ellerston Capital’s Global Macro team. With more than 25 years’ industry experience, Tim is one of Australia’s most highly regarded economists. He previously spent 15 years as Chief Economist and Head of Macro Strategy Australia and New Zealand at Goldman Sachs, during which time he was named Australia’s number one economist in the Greenwich survey for 13 consecutive years from 2003-2016.
Tim has a Bachelor of Commerce degree from the University of Melbourne (Honours in Economics) and a Masters of Economics also from The University of Melbourne.
Tim works closely with the investment team, advising on both the outlook for financial markets and asset allocation. Prior to joining Yarra Capital Management, Tim was Chief Economist of Ellerston Capital’s Global Macro team. With more than 25...
Tim works closely with the investment team, advising on both the outlook for financial markets and asset allocation. Prior to joining Yarra Capital Management, Tim was Chief Economist of Ellerston Capital’s Global Macro team. With more than 25...
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